--- title: "Turmoil Artefacts case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Turmoil Artefacts ($0.65) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 80.65% over 925 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11f5fb38f69937692efa rendered: 2026-11-12T10:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Turmoil Artefacts](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11f5fb38f69937692efa) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Turmoil Artefacts A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11f5fb38f69937692efa?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11f5fb38f69937692efa?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11f5fb38f69937692efa) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11f5fb38f69937692efa?window=all) Price · $0.65 · 1,079 BUX Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $0.58 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.65% · 925 openings, odds method Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 73 openings · below min 7 days · 80.15% ±11.55 637 openings 30 days · 80.65% ±9.58 925 openings since tracking started · 80.65% ±9.58 925 openings 47.0% 81.8% 116.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11f5fb38f69937692efa?window=24h) | 73 | 81.94% ±34.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11f5fb38f69937692efa?window=7d) | 637 | 80.15% ±11.5 | −1.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11f5fb38f69937692efa) | 925 | 80.65% ±9.58 | −1.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11f5fb38f69937692efa?window=all) | 925 | 80.65% ±9.58 | −1.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 993 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Amulet (Iron) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-iron) | 1 in 20 | $4.50 7,497 BUX | 38.6% | 37 | 49.7 | 0.75× | | [Coins Of Iron (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coins-of-iron-metal) | 11.0% | $1.00 1,674 BUX | 19.0% | 109 | 109.2 | 1.00× | | [Sheriff Badge (Tin) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sheriff-badge-tin) | 12.0% | $0.99 1,649 BUX | 20.4% | 109 | 119.2 | 0.91× | | [Titanium Toothpick other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/titanium-toothpick) | 12.0% | $0.30 500 BUX | 6.2% | 126 | 119.2 | 1.06× | | [Ring (Tin) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ring-tin) | 12.0% | $0.22 367 BUX | 4.5% | 118 | 119.2 | 0.99× | | [Plank of wood (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/plank-of-wood-wood) | 12.0% | $0.18 300 BUX | 3.7% | 121 | 119.2 | 1.02× | | [Talisman (Tin) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/talisman-tin) | 12.0% | $0.17 283 BUX | 3.5% | 114 | 119.2 | 0.96× | | [Steel Stud other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/steel-stud) | 12.0% | $0.10 167 BUX | 2.1% | 119 | 119.2 | 1.00× | | [Rusty Nail (Iron) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/rusty-nail-iron) | 12.0% | $0.10 167 BUX | 2.1% | 140 | 119.2 | 1.17× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f11f5fb38f69937692efa) [Steel Stud other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/steel-stud) Hidden $0.65 1,079 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.15x 2026-11-12 00:59 UTC [Titanium Toothpick other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/titanium-toothpick) [sad\_man17](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/sad_man17) $0.65 1,079 BUX $0.30 500 BUX 0.46x 2026-11-12 00:59 UTC [Rusty Nail (Iron) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/rusty-nail-iron) [user-19d0a7](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-19d0a7) $0.65 1,079 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.15x 2026-11-12 00:58 UTC [Titanium Toothpick other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/titanium-toothpick) [sad\_man17](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/sad_man17) $0.65 1,079 BUX $0.30 500 BUX 0.46x 2026-11-12 00:58 UTC [Rusty Nail (Iron) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/rusty-nail-iron) [user-19d0a7](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-19d0a7) $0.65 1,079 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.15x 2026-11-12 00:57 UTC [Talisman (Tin) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/talisman-tin) [sad\_man17](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/sad_man17) $0.65 1,079 BUX $0.17 283 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-12 00:57 UTC [Coins Of Iron (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coins-of-iron-metal) [Le Shake](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Le%20Shake) $0.65 1,079 BUX $1.00 1,674 BUX 1.55x 2026-11-11 22:19 UTC [Ring (Tin) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ring-tin) [Lidthyggepågeden](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Lidthyggep%C3%A5geden) $0.65 1,079 BUX $0.22 367 BUX 0.34x 2026-11-11 22:19 UTC [Plank of wood (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/plank-of-wood-wood) Hidden $0.65 1,079 BUX $0.18 300 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-11 22:14 UTC [Plank of wood (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/plank-of-wood-wood) Hidden $0.65 1,079 BUX $0.18 300 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-11 22:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $0.65 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Industrial Grade 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 11.0% Consumer Grade 84.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt