--- title: "Lucyz 15% AK case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lucyz 15% AK ($11.00) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 95.67% over 111 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/679fd5e993416d4588b8c861 rendered: 2026-11-12T16:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Lucyz 15% AK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/679fd5e993416d4588b8c861) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Lucyz 15% AK A case on 500 Casino, first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/679fd5e993416d4588b8c861?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/679fd5e993416d4588b8c861?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/679fd5e993416d4588b8c861) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/679fd5e993416d4588b8c861?window=all) Price · $11.00 · 18,327 BUX Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 95.67% · 111 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 103 openings · below min 7 days · 111 openings · below min 30 days · 111 openings · below min since tracking started · 111 openings · below min 39.0% 93.5% 148.0% **Small sample.** 111 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/679fd5e993416d4588b8c861?window=24h) | 103 | 90.90% ±51.3 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/679fd5e993416d4588b8c861?window=7d) | 111 | 95.67% ±51.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/679fd5e993416d4588b8c861) | 111 | 95.67% ±51.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/679fd5e993416d4588b8c861?window=all) | 111 | 95.67% ±51.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** 500 Casino publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=679fd5e993416d4588b8c861) [AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.00 18,327 BUX $41.19 68,622 BUX 3.74x 2026-11-12 15:01 UTC [Sticker | Hello AK-47 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-ak-47) Hidden $11.00 18,327 BUX $0.37 616 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-12 15:01 UTC [Sticker | Hello AK-47 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-ak-47) Hidden $11.00 18,327 BUX $0.37 616 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-12 15:01 UTC [Sticker | Hello AK-47 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-ak-47) Hidden $11.00 18,327 BUX $0.37 616 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-12 12:53 UTC [Sticker | Hello AK-47 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-ak-47) Hidden $11.00 18,327 BUX $0.37 616 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-12 12:53 UTC [Sticker | Hello AK-47 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-ak-47) Hidden $11.00 18,327 BUX $0.37 616 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-12 12:53 UTC [Sticker | Hello AK-47 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-ak-47) Hidden $11.00 18,327 BUX $0.37 616 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-12 12:53 UTC [Sticker | Hello AK-47 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-ak-47) Hidden $11.00 18,327 BUX $0.37 616 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-12 12:53 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.00 18,327 BUX $22.31 37,168 BUX 2.03x 2026-11-12 12:53 UTC [Sticker | Hello AK-47 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-ak-47) Hidden $11.00 18,327 BUX $0.37 616 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-12 12:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.67 on average: an expected loss of $4.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt