--- title: "Ultimate 10% Knife case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ultimate 10% Knife ($46.21) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 110.83% over 28 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/67a5bff7b7e9d13344da9f49 rendered: 2026-11-13T05:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Ultimate 10% Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/67a5bff7b7e9d13344da9f49) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Ultimate 10% Knife A case on 500 Casino, first seen 12 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/67a5bff7b7e9d13344da9f49?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/67a5bff7b7e9d13344da9f49?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/67a5bff7b7e9d13344da9f49) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/67a5bff7b7e9d13344da9f49?window=all) Price · $46.21 · 76,991 BUX Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 110.83% · 28 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 28 openings · below min 30 days · 28 openings · below min since tracking started · 28 openings · below min -0.5% 115.8% 232.0% **Small sample.** 28 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/67a5bff7b7e9d13344da9f49?window=24h) | 12 | 112.14% ±119.2 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/67a5bff7b7e9d13344da9f49?window=7d) | 28 | 110.83% ±83.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/67a5bff7b7e9d13344da9f49) | 28 | 110.83% ±83.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/67a5bff7b7e9d13344da9f49?window=all) | 28 | 110.83% ±83.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** 500 Casino publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=67a5bff7b7e9d13344da9f49) [Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken) sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-chicken) Hidden $46.21 76,991 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.00x 2026-11-12 15:13 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $46.21 76,991 BUX $137 228,175 BUX 2.96x 2026-11-12 15:13 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) Hidden $46.21 76,991 BUX $224 373,383 BUX 4.85x 2026-11-12 15:13 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken) sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-chicken) Hidden $46.21 76,991 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.00x 2026-11-12 15:13 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken) sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-chicken) Hidden $46.21 76,991 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.00x 2026-11-12 15:12 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken) sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-chicken) Hidden $46.21 76,991 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.00x 2026-11-12 15:12 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken) sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-chicken) Hidden $46.21 76,991 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.00x 2026-11-12 15:12 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $46.21 76,991 BUX $260 432,993 BUX 5.62x 2026-11-12 15:12 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken) sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-chicken) Hidden $46.21 76,991 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.00x 2026-11-12 15:11 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken) sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-chicken) Hidden $46.21 76,991 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.00x 2026-11-12 15:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 110.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $110.83 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt