--- title: "THIS CASE IS CRAZY 10% case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "THIS CASE IS CRAZY 10% ($4.35) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 78.61% over 44 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/68197b33e065decaf834f4aa rendered: 2026-11-12T14:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [THIS CASE IS CRAZY 10%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/68197b33e065decaf834f4aa) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · THIS CASE IS CRAZY 10% A case on 500 Casino, first seen 6 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/68197b33e065decaf834f4aa?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/68197b33e065decaf834f4aa?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/68197b33e065decaf834f4aa) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/68197b33e065decaf834f4aa?window=all) Price · $4.35 · 7,248 BUX Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 78.61% · 44 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 7 days · 44 openings · below min 30 days · 44 openings · below min since tracking started · 44 openings · below min 9.5% 78.5% 147.5% **Small sample.** 44 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/68197b33e065decaf834f4aa?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/68197b33e065decaf834f4aa?window=7d) | 44 | 78.61% ±68.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/68197b33e065decaf834f4aa) | 44 | 78.61% ±68.3 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/68197b33e065decaf834f4aa?window=all) | 44 | 78.61% ±68.3 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** 500 Casino publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=68197b33e065decaf834f4aa) [Sticker | AKickflip-47 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akickflip-47) Hidden $4.35 7,248 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-06 21:59 UTC [Sticker | AKickflip-47 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akickflip-47) Hidden $4.35 7,248 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-06 21:59 UTC [Sticker | AKickflip-47 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akickflip-47) Hidden $4.35 7,248 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-06 21:59 UTC [Sticker | AKickflip-47 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akickflip-47) [rejune](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/rejune) $4.35 7,248 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-06 21:59 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.35 7,248 BUX $26.79 44,632 BUX 6.16x 2026-11-06 21:58 UTC [Sticker | AKickflip-47 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akickflip-47) Hidden $4.35 7,248 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-06 21:58 UTC [Sticker | AKickflip-47 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akickflip-47) Hidden $4.35 7,248 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-06 21:58 UTC [Sticker | AKickflip-47 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akickflip-47) [rejune](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/rejune) $4.35 7,248 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-06 21:58 UTC [Sticker | AKickflip-47 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akickflip-47) Hidden $4.35 7,248 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-06 21:57 UTC [Sticker | AKickflip-47 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akickflip-47) Hidden $4.35 7,248 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-06 21:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 78.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $78.61 on average: an expected loss of $21.39 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt