--- title: "M4 Case case on Bloodycase: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "M4 Case ($4.99) on Bloodycase, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 73.85% over 364 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/m4 rendered: 2026-11-12T09:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Bloodycase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/bloodycase) / [M4 Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/m4) # [Bloodycase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/bloodycase) · M4 Case A case on Bloodycase (Random Weapon cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Bloodycase's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/m4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/m4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/m4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/m4?window=all) Price · $4.99 Advertised RTP · — · no odds published Observed RTP, 30d · 73.85% · 364 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 45 openings · below min 7 days · 265 openings · below min 30 days · 364 openings · below min since tracking started · 364 openings · below min 38.0% 66.8% 95.5% **Small sample.** 364 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/m4?window=24h) | 45 | 52.52% ±14.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/m4?window=7d) | 265 | 82.67% ±12.2 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/m4) | 364 | 73.85% ±9.47 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/m4?window=all) | 364 | 73.85% ±9.47 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No odds published** Bloodycase lists this case with prices and contents but no item odds, so there is no advertised RTP and the band comes from the sample alone. Values are Bloodycase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `bloodycase:CasePublicServiceGetCasesWithItems`, 12 Nov, 08:04 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=bloodycase&case=m4) [SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-factory-new) [uvuvwevwevwe onyetevue osas](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/uvuvwevwevwe%20onyetevue%20osas) $4.99 $0.37 0.07x 2026-11-12 06:31 UTC [P90 | Attack Vector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-battle-scarred) [????????????????⚡](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%E2%9A%A1) $4.99 $5.62 1.13x 2026-11-12 06:31 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Jambiya (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-jambiya-minimal-wear) [yonki](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/yonki) $4.99 $1.48 0.30x 2026-11-12 01:59 UTC [StatTrak™ AUG | Fleet Flock (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-fleet-flock-battle-scarred) [artlesspotato](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/artlesspotato) $4.99 $12.30 2.46x 2026-11-12 01:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [TwójStary3000](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/Tw%C3%B3jStary3000) $4.99 $0.32 0.06x 2026-11-12 01:50 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) [Livia](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/Livia) $4.99 $0.29 0.06x 2026-11-12 01:50 UTC [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) [Ayato](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/Ayato) $4.99 $3.57 0.72x 2026-11-12 01:50 UTC [M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-well-worn) [Global](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/Global) $4.99 $5.43 1.09x 2026-11-11 18:03 UTC [M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-minimal-wear) [Zoro](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/Zoro) $4.99 $0.10 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:03 UTC [M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) [Global](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/Global) $4.99 $0.91 0.18x 2026-11-11 17:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $4.99 | — | 0 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.85 on average: an expected loss of $26.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt