--- title: "Mirage Case case on Bloodycase: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mirage Case ($1.78) on Bloodycase, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 72.96% over 588 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/mirage-case rendered: 2026-11-11T19:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Bloodycase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/bloodycase) / [Mirage Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/mirage-case) # [Bloodycase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/bloodycase) · Mirage Case A case on Bloodycase (Random Weapon cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Bloodycase's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/mirage-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/mirage-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/mirage-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/mirage-case?window=all) Price · $1.78 Advertised RTP · — · no odds published Observed RTP, 30d · 72.96% · 588 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 59 openings · below min 7 days · 456 openings · below min 30 days · 588 openings · below min since tracking started · 588 openings · below min 44.0% 66.0% 88.0% **Small sample.** 588 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/mirage-case?window=24h) | 59 | 65.88% ±21.4 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/mirage-case?window=7d) | 456 | 75.56% ±8.48 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/mirage-case) | 588 | 72.96% ±7.11 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/mirage-case?window=all) | 588 | 72.96% ±7.11 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No odds published** Bloodycase lists this case with prices and contents but no item odds, so there is no advertised RTP and the band comes from the sample alone. Values are Bloodycase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `bloodycase:CasePublicServiceGetCasesWithItems`, 11 Nov, 14:04 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=bloodycase&case=mirage-case) [Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-battle-scarred) [N I G A](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/N%20I%20G%20A) $1.78 $0.38 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC [AUG | Snake Pit (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-snake-pit-well-worn) [Berk](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/Berk) $1.78 $0.10 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC [UMP-45 | Motorized (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-factory-new) [N I G A](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/N%20I%20G%20A) $1.78 $0.40 0.22x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC [M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-factory-new) [Legacy](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/Legacy) $1.78 $2.15 1.21x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-well-worn) [Yuumi](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/Yuumi) $1.78 $3.03 1.70x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [Nova | Predator (Well-Worn) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-predator-well-worn) [largilucho\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/largilucho_) $1.78 $0.04 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [AUG | Snake Pit (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-snake-pit-field-tested) [dr.buci](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/dr.buci) $1.78 $0.08 0.04x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC [UMP-45 | Motorized (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-factory-new) [JCantelli17](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/JCantelli17) $1.78 $0.40 0.22x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC [Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-field-tested) [Bonzin](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/Bonzin) $1.78 $0.44 0.25x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC [UMP-45 | Motorized (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-factory-new) [Orkun](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/Orkun) $1.78 $0.40 0.22x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.78 | — | 0 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $72.96 on average: an expected loss of $27.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt