--- title: "The Hot Case case on Bloodycase: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Hot Case ($0.71) on Bloodycase, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 79.11% over 4,195 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/the-hot-case rendered: 2026-11-11T20:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Bloodycase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/bloodycase) / [The Hot Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/the-hot-case) # [Bloodycase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/bloodycase) · The Hot Case A case on Bloodycase (Random Weapon cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Bloodycase's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/the-hot-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/the-hot-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/the-hot-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/the-hot-case?window=all) Price · $0.71 Advertised RTP · — · no odds published Observed RTP, 30d · 79.11% · 4,195 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 430 openings · below min 7 days · 79.97% ±3.53 3,220 openings 30 days · 79.11% ±3.00 4,195 openings since tracking started · 79.11% ±3.00 4,195 openings 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/the-hot-case?window=24h) | 430 | 80.13% ±9.40 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/the-hot-case?window=7d) | 3,220 | 79.97% ±3.53 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/the-hot-case) | 4,195 | 79.11% ±3.00 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/bloodycase/the-hot-case?window=all) | 4,195 | 79.11% ±3.00 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No odds published** Bloodycase lists this case with prices and contents but no item odds, so there is no advertised RTP and the band comes from the sample alone. Values are Bloodycase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `bloodycase:CasePublicServiceGetCasesWithItems`, 11 Nov, 20:04 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=bloodycase&case=the-hot-case) [MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-minimal-wear) [116046393827462021768](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/116046393827462021768) $0.71 $0.87 1.23x 2026-11-11 20:51 UTC [PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-field-tested) [116046393827462021768](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/116046393827462021768) $0.71 $0.01 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:51 UTC [R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-battle-scarred) [Slowpy](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/Slowpy) $0.71 $0.42 0.59x 2026-11-11 20:49 UTC [UMP-45 | Facility Dark (Well-Worn) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-facility-dark-well-worn) [Esan nahka | Bloodycase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/Esan%20nahka%20%7C%20Bloodycase.com) $0.71 $0.04 0.06x 2026-11-11 20:48 UTC [UMP-45 | Facility Dark (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-facility-dark-field-tested) [S1mplon](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/S1mplon) $0.71 $0.03 0.04x 2026-11-11 20:48 UTC [UMP-45 | Facility Dark (Minimal Wear) weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-facility-dark-minimal-wear) [:)](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/%3A%29) $0.71 $0.04 0.06x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Twist (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-twist-field-tested) [man wtf | Bloodycase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/man%20wtf%20%7C%20Bloodycase.com) $0.71 $1.17 1.65x 2026-11-11 20:41 UTC [PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed (Well-Worn) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-well-worn) [• Wolf](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/%26bull%3B%20Wolf) $0.71 $0.04 0.06x 2026-11-11 20:41 UTC [UMP-45 | Facility Dark (Minimal Wear) weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-facility-dark-minimal-wear) [Esan nahka | Bloodycase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/Esan%20nahka%20%7C%20Bloodycase.com) $0.71 $0.04 0.06x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-minimal-wear) [Thorens](https://gambatracker.com/players/bloodycase/Thorens) $0.71 $0.05 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 79.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $79.11 on average: an expected loss of $20.89 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt