--- title: "10% BOOMBOX JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% BOOMBOX JOKER ($189.82) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 27 items with odds, observed 92.83% over 142 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T04:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [10% BOOMBOX JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · 10% BOOMBOX JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox-joker?window=all) Price · $189.82 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $166.09 from 27 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.83% · 142 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 94.27% ±26.44 112 openings 30 days · 92.83% ±23.47 142 openings since tracking started · 92.83% ±23.47 142 openings 67.0% 206.3% 345.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox-joker?window=24h) | 8 | 244.96% ±99.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox-joker?window=7d) | 112 | 94.27% ±26.4 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox-joker) | 142 | 92.83% ±23.5 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox-joker?window=all) | 142 | 92.83% ±23.5 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 166 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $1,123 | 48.3% | 11 | 11.9 | 0.93× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $233 | 10.0% | 10 | 11.9 | 0.84× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $174 | 7.5% | 18 | 11.9 | 1.52× | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $165 | 3.5% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $153 | 2.2% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $152 | 2.2% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $138 | 2.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $133 | 2.9% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $126 | 5.4% | 13 | 11.9 | 1.10× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $120 | 1.7% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $105 | 2.2% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $92.83 | 2.0% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $84.46 | 1.2% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $80.78 | 1.2% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $77.59 | 1.1% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $72.41 | 1.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $65.16 | 0.9% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $65.01 | 0.7% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $63.62 | 0.9% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $59.23 | 0.8% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $56.50 | 0.8% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $44.98 | 0.5% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $37.90 | 0.4% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $36.20 | 0.4% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× | | [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.81 | 0.1% | 10 | 11.9 | 0.84× | | [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 4 | 11.9 | 0.34× | | [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.43 | 0.0% | 19 | 11.9 | 1.60× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/10-boombox-joker`, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $191 $1,130 5.92x 2026-11-08 22:17 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $191 $1,123 5.89x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $191 $1,123 5.89x 2026-11-10 22:16 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $190 $1,123 5.91x 2026-11-11 21:30 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $190 $1,123 5.91x 2026-11-11 21:30 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $191 $1,111 5.83x 2026-11-05 12:43 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $190 $1,111 5.84x 2026-11-05 01:12 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $190 $1,111 5.84x 2026-11-04 17:52 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $189 $1,111 5.89x 2026-11-10 11:04 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [\_quot;S\_quot; KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/_quot%3BS_quot%3B%20KING) $188 $1,111 5.91x 2026-11-06 18:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=10-boombox-joker) [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $190 $1,123 5.91x 2026-11-11 21:30 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport) Hidden $190 $148 0.78x 2026-11-11 21:30 UTC [Glock-18 | Neo-Noir weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir) Hidden $190 $46.02 0.24x 2026-11-11 21:30 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $190 $1,123 5.91x 2026-11-11 21:30 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil) Hidden $191 $66.86 0.35x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $191 $1,123 5.89x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption) Hidden $191 $99.31 0.52x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [ChrasťoušekS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Chras%C5%A5ou%C5%A1ekS) $191 $0.46 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $191 $0.46 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:16 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $191 $1,123 5.89x 2026-11-10 22:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $190 | 87.50% | 27 | | 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $191 | 87.50% | 27 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $191 | 87.50% | 27 | | 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $189 | 87.50% | 27 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $192 | 87.50% | 27 | | 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $192 | 87.50% | 27 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $191 | 87.50% | 27 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $191 | 87.50% | 27 | | 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $188 | 87.50% | 27 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $184 | 87.50% | 27 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $190 | 87.50% | 27 | | 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $191 | 87.50% | 27 | | 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $190 | 87.50% | 27 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $192 | 87.50% | 27 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 55.4% sunny 7.1% classified 14.3% Ancient 1.8% blue 7.1% violet 14.3% best hit $1,130 (5.92x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt