---
title: "10% BOOMBOX case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "10% BOOMBOX ($9.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 27 items with odds, observed 88.25% over 24.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [10% BOOMBOX](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · 10% BOOMBOX

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox?window=all)

Price · $9.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $7.88 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.25% · 24.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 11.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 37 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 92.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.49% ±14.91 1,958 openings

7 days · 87.24% ±4.72 18.4K openings

30 days · 88.25% ±4.07 24.1K openings

since tracking started · 88.25% ±4.07 24.1K openings

72.0% 87.5% 103.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox?window=24h) | 1,958 | 87.49% ±14.9 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox?window=7d) | 18.4K | 87.24% ±4.72 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox) | 24.1K | 88.25% ±4.07 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/10-boombox?window=all) | 24.1K | 88.25% ±4.07 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,123 | 1.4% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.66× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 323 | $233 | 9.2% | 59 | 74.8 | 0.79× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 244 | $174 | 9.1% | 76 | 98.9 | 0.77× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 526 | $165 | 4.0% | 0 | 45.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $153 | 2.9% | 0 | 36.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $152 | 2.9% | 0 | 36.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 556 | $138 | 3.2% | 0 | 43.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $133 | 5.1% | 0 | 72.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 179 | $126 | 9.0% | 104 | 135.1 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 714 | $120 | 2.1% | 0 | 33.8 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $105 | 4.3% | 0 | 77.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 244 | $92.83 | 4.8% | 0 | 98.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 476 | $84.46 | 2.3% | 0 | 50.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 313 | $80.78 | 3.3% | 0 | 77.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 370 | $77.59 | 2.7% | 0 | 65.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 256 | $72.41 | 3.6% | 0 | 94.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 263 | $65.16 | 3.1% | 0 | 91.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 556 | $65.01 | 1.5% | 0 | 43.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $63.62 | 3.2% | 0 | 96.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 227 | $59.23 | 3.3% | 0 | 106.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 208 | $56.50 | 3.4% | 0 | 115.8 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 263 | $44.98 | 2.2% | 0 | 91.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 185 | $37.90 | 2.6% | 0 | 130.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 169 | $36.20 | 2.7% | 0 | 142.3 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) | 18.4% | $1.81 | 4.2% | 2,837 | 4435.5 | 0.64× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 36.9% | $0.44 | 2.1% | 9,868 | 8887.9 | 1.11× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 37.0% | $0.43 | 2.0% | 9,261 | 8936.1 | 1.04× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/10-boombox`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $9.00 $1,135 126.1x 2026-11-09 17:00 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $9.00 $1,128 125.3x 2026-11-10 17:15 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $9.00 $1,111 123.5x 2026-11-05 04:40 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $9.00 $1,078 119.8x 2026-11-03 16:04 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=10-boombox)

[UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $9.00 $1.81 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $9.00 $0.43 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $9.00 $1.81 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) [denizgenc007](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/denizgenc007) $9.00 $1.81 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $9.00 $0.43 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC

[Glock-18 | Neo-Noir weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir) Hidden $9.00 $41.79 4.64x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $9.00 $0.43 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [Hogward](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Hogward) $9.00 $0.43 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $9.00 $0.43 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

[Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) Hidden $9.00 $0.44 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $9.00 | 87.50% | 27 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $9.00 | 87.50% | 27 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $9.00 | 87.70% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $9.00 | 87.50% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $9.00 | 87.70% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $9.00 | 87.19% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $9.00 | 88.01% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $9.00 | 87.04% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $9.00 | 87.42% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $9.00 | 87.04% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $9.00 | 87.42% | 27 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $9.00 | 87.96% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $9.00 | 86.99% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $9.00 | 87.93% | 27 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $9.00 | 87.73% | 27 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $9.00 | 87.60% | 27 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $9.00 | 87.10% | 27 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $9.00 | 87.93% | 27 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $9.00 | 87.99% | 27 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $9.00 | 87.63% | 27 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 5.8% sunny 0.3% classified 1.2% Ancient 0.4% blue 18.4% violet 73.9% best hit $1,135 (126.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt