---
title: "20% JUICE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "20% JUICE JOKER ($90.90) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 36 items with odds, observed 91.16% over 691 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T01:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [20% JUICE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · 20% JUICE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice-joker?window=all)

Price · $90.90

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $79.54 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.16% · 691 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 70 openings · below min

7 days · 100.47% ±11.39 481 openings

30 days · 91.16% ±9.52 691 openings

since tracking started · 91.16% ±9.52 691 openings

69.0% 99.3% 129.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice-joker?window=24h) | 70 | 99.10% ±29.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice-joker?window=7d) | 481 | 100.47% ±11.4 | +2.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice-joker) | 691 | 91.16% ±9.52 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice-joker?window=all) | 691 | 91.16% ±9.52 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 694 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $401 | 45.8% | 69 | 63.1 | 1.09× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $218 | 8.3% | 0 | 21.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $142 | 5.4% | 0 | 21.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $136 | 3.9% | 0 | 15.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $135 | 3.9% | 0 | 15.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $129 | 3.7% | 0 | 15.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $122 | 3.5% | 0 | 15.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $121 | 4.6% | 0 | 21.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $77.59 | 3.0% | 0 | 21.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $65.55 | 2.5% | 0 | 21.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $65.16 | 2.5% | 0 | 21.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $63.62 | 2.4% | 0 | 21.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $60.79 | 3.5% | 0 | 31.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $55.91 | 2.1% | 0 | 21.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $53.66 | 2.0% | 0 | 21.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $25.20 | 1.4% | 0 | 31.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $17.52 | 1.0% | 0 | 31.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $4.38 | 0.3% | 0 | 31.5 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 55 | $1.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 12.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 55 | $1.12 | 0.0% | 0 | 12.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $0.96 | 0.0% | 0 | 15.8 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $0.72 | 0.0% | 0 | 12.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $0.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 15.8 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $0.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 15.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 15.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $0.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 15.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $0.54 | 0.0% | 0 | 12.6 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 12.6 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $0.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 12.6 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 55 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 12.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $0.32 | 0.0% | 0 | 15.8 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.21 | 0.0% | 0 | 15.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 12.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 15.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 12.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-battle-scarred) | 1 in 55 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 12.6 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/20-juice-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=20-juice-joker)

[M4A1-S | Golden Coil weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil) Hidden $90.90 $68.79 0.76x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC

[MP9 | Cobalt Paisley weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley) Hidden $90.90 $0.44 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC

[MP9 | Cobalt Paisley weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley) [Lipa skins.army SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Lipa%20skins.army%20SKINS) $90.90 $0.44 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled) Hidden $90.90 $10.95 0.12x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) Hidden $90.90 $401 4.41x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Autotronic knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic) [Lipa skins.army SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Lipa%20skins.army%20SKINS) $90.90 $160 1.76x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge) Hidden $90.90 $42.99 0.47x 2026-11-11 20:43 UTC

[M4A1-S | Golden Coil weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil) Hidden $90.90 $68.79 0.76x 2026-11-11 20:43 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled) Hidden $90.90 $10.95 0.12x 2026-11-11 20:43 UTC

[Glock-18 | Coral Bloom weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom) [Lipa skins.army SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Lipa%20skins.army%20SKINS) $90.90 $0.33 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $90.90 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $90.24 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $91.26 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $91.75 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $91.69 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $92.03 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $92.90 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $92.03 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $92.86 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $92.03 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $92.76 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $93.21 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $92.76 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $93.10 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $92.44 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $92.68 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $92.96 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $92.68 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $93.06 | 87.50% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 9.1% sunny 3.0% covert 30.3% Ancient 3.0% pink 9.1% Legendary 4.5% uncommon 4.5% Mythical 5.9% Rare 4.1% #8847ff 4.1% violet 3.6% Restricted 2.3% restricted 2.3% blue 5.5% #4b69ff 4.5% common 2.3% milspec 1.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt