---
title: "20% JUICE case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "20% JUICE ($13.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 36 items with odds, observed 84.05% over 15K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:12Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [20% JUICE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · 20% JUICE

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice?window=all)

Price · $13.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $11.37 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.05% · 15K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.32% ±8.64 2,115 openings

7 days · 84.61% ±3.52 13K openings

30 days · 84.05% ±3.28 15K openings

since tracking started · 84.05% ±3.28 15K openings

74.0% 83.3% 92.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.53% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.78% – 87.33%, 14,983 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice?window=24h) | 2,115 | 83.32% ±8.64 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice?window=7d) | 13K | 84.61% ±3.52 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice) | 15K | 84.05% ±3.28 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/20-juice?window=all) | 15K | 84.05% ±3.28 | −2.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $400 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $219 | 3.9% | 0 | 30.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $140 | 3.7% | 0 | 45.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $137 | 2.4% | 0 | 30.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $131 | 3.5% | 0 | 45.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $126 | 2.2% | 0 | 30.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $122 | 3.2% | 0 | 45.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $121 | 5.3% | 0 | 75.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $74.67 | 6.6% | 0 | 150.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $66.23 | 6.3% | 0 | 163.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $65.16 | 7.5% | 0 | 196.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $60.74 | 8.1% | 0 | 226.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-factory-new) | 1 in 79 | $59.76 | 6.6% | 0 | 189.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $54.68 | 7.7% | 0 | 240.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $51.70 | 8.1% | 0 | 268.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $25.34 | 15.5% | 0 | 1046.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $17.07 | 4.6% | 0 | 455.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $4.43 | 2.0% | 0 | 769.4 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $1.45 | 0.1% | 0 | 120.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $1.15 | 0.2% | 0 | 244.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 192 | $1.10 | 0.1% | 0 | 78.0 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $0.72 | 0.1% | 0 | 319.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $0.63 | 0.2% | 0 | 568.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.58 | 0.2% | 0 | 637.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $0.58 | 0.1% | 0 | 259.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $0.55 | 0.2% | 0 | 686.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $0.55 | 0.1% | 0 | 207.0 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.46 | 0.2% | 0 | 596.9 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $0.44 | 0.2% | 0 | 635.9 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.43 | 0.2% | 0 | 656.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $0.31 | 0.1% | 0 | 625.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.21 | 0.1% | 0 | 1078.4 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.20 | 0.1% | 0 | 850.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.20 | 0.1% | 0 | 1153.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.18 | 0.1% | 0 | 986.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 1285.3 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/20-juice`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=20-juice)

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s) Hidden $13.00 $0.65 0.05x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[Glock-18 | Coral Bloom weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom) Hidden $13.00 $0.26 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[MP9 | Cobalt Paisley weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley) [Murzynowski](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Murzynowski) $13.00 $0.22 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[P90 | Vent Rush weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush) Hidden $13.00 $0.53 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge) Hidden $13.00 $30.60 2.35x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[P90 | Vent Rush weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush) [Kuba Błaszczykowski](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Kuba%20B%C5%82aszczykowski) $13.00 $0.53 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[AK-47 | Asiimov weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov) Hidden $13.00 $56.30 4.33x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[MP9 | Cobalt Paisley weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley) Hidden $13.00 $0.22 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[Glock-18 | Coral Bloom weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom) [Kuba Błaszczykowski](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Kuba%20B%C5%82aszczykowski) $13.00 $0.26 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[MP9 | Cobalt Paisley weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley) Hidden $13.00 $0.22 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $13.00 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $13.00 | 87.39% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $13.00 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $13.00 | 87.39% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $13.00 | 87.73% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $13.00 | 87.53% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $13.00 | 87.49% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $13.00 | 87.53% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $13.00 | 87.49% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $13.00 | 87.81% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $13.00 | 87.60% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $13.00 | 87.42% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $13.00 | 87.63% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $13.00 | 87.42% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $13.00 | 87.44% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $13.00 | 87.63% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $13.00 | 87.14% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $13.00 | 87.53% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $13.00 | 87.38% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $13.00 | 87.53% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $13.00 | 87.38% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $13.00 | 87.34% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $13.00 | 87.60% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $13.00 | 87.42% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $13.00 | 88.80% | 36 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $13.00 | 87.42% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.0% sunny 0.2% covert 9.0% Ancient 1.1% pink 6.4% Legendary 7.0% uncommon 3.0% Mythical 9.4% #8847ff 5.6% Rare 2.3% violet 6.4% Restricted 3.8% restricted 4.6% blue 16.5% #4b69ff 11.9% common 7.2% milspec 5.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt