--- title: "5% DAGURA JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% DAGURA JOKER ($90.20) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 10 items with odds, observed 85.83% over 196 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T07:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [5% DAGURA JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · 5% DAGURA JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura-joker?window=all) Price · $90.20 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $78.92 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.83% · 196 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 84.73% ±16.36 172 openings 30 days · 85.83% ±15.32 196 openings since tracking started · 85.83% ±15.32 196 openings 53.5% 104.8% 156.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura-joker?window=24h) | 18 | 104.71% ±50.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura-joker?window=7d) | 172 | 84.73% ±16.4 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura-joker) | 196 | 85.83% ±15.3 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura-joker?window=all) | 196 | 85.83% ±15.3 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 220 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 10.0% | $345 | 43.7% | 23 | 22.0 | 1.05× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $158 | 20.0% | 17 | 22.0 | 0.77× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 10.0% | $90.57 | 11.5% | 23 | 22.0 | 1.05× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 10.0% | $66.25 | 8.4% | 23 | 22.0 | 1.05× | | [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 10.0% | $53.77 | 6.8% | 16 | 22.0 | 0.73× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $24.12 | 3.1% | 18 | 22.0 | 0.82× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 10.0% | $22.47 | 2.8% | 31 | 22.0 | 1.41× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 10.0% | $19.74 | 2.5% | 23 | 22.0 | 1.05× | | [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 10.0% | $9.36 | 1.2% | 23 | 22.0 | 1.05× | | [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 23 | 22.0 | 1.05× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/5-dagura-joker`, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=5-dagura-joker) [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) Hidden $90.20 $9.36 0.10x 2026-11-12 00:37 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) Hidden $90.20 $19.74 0.22x 2026-11-12 00:37 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Myکτicツ“skins.army”](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/My%DA%A9%CF%84ic%E3%83%84%E2%80%9Cskins.army%E2%80%9D) $90.20 $90.57 1.00x 2026-11-12 00:37 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $90.20 $158 1.75x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $90.20 $345 3.82x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) Hidden $90.20 $9.36 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Zirq](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Zirq) $90.20 $90.57 1.00x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) Hidden $90.20 $24.12 0.27x 2026-11-11 21:33 UTC [M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) Hidden $90.20 $66.25 0.73x 2026-11-11 21:33 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $90.20 $90.57 1.00x 2026-11-11 21:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $90.20 | 87.50% | 10 | | 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $87.66 | 87.50% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $88.65 | 87.50% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $88.67 | 87.50% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $88.63 | 87.50% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $88.11 | 87.50% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $88.63 | 87.50% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $88.80 | 87.50% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $88.62 | 87.50% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $88.12 | 87.50% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $89.38 | 87.50% | 10 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $89.17 | 87.50% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 30.0% gold 10.0% red 10.0% classified 30.0% violet 10.0% Uncommon 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt