--- title: "5% DAGURA case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "5% DAGURA ($2.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 10 items with odds, observed 83.49% over 75.3K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura rendered: 2026-11-11T19:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [5% DAGURA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · 5% DAGURA A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura?window=all) Price · $2.50 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.19 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.49% · 75.3K openings, odds method Variance · 26.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 76 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 74.19% ±13.76 5,321 openings 7 days · 81.27% ±4.25 61K openings 30 days · 83.49% ±3.85 75.3K openings since tracking started · 83.49% ±3.85 75.3K openings 60.0% 74.3% 88.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.55% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.63% – 87.34%, 75,257 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura?window=24h) | 5,321 | 74.19% ±13.8 | −1.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura?window=7d) | 61K | 81.27% ±4.25 | −2.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura) | 75.3K | 83.49% ±3.85 | −2.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/5-dagura?window=all) | 75.3K | 83.49% ±3.85 | −2.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 75.3K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $345 | 7.9% | 26 | 37.6 | 0.69× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 588 | $158 | 12.3% | 143 | 128.0 | 1.12× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 385 | $90.57 | 10.8% | 248 | 195.8 | 1.27× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 263 | $66.25 | 11.5% | 294 | 286.1 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 217 | $53.77 | 11.3% | 374 | 346.4 | 1.08× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 98 | $24.12 | 11.2% | 708 | 768.0 | 0.92× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $22.47 | 11.4% | 679 | 835.8 | 0.81× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $19.74 | 11.4% | 813 | 948.8 | 0.86× | | [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $9.36 | 11.4% | 1,603 | 2003.0 | 0.80× | | [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) | 92.6% | $0.02 | 0.8% | 70,411 | 69749.5 | 1.01× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/5-dagura`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2.50 $350 140.1x 2026-11-03 13:10 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2.50 $350 140.1x 2026-11-03 12:44 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [WVSKI](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/WVSKI) $2.50 $350 140.1x 2026-11-03 12:24 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Cyp](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Cyp) $2.50 $344 137.7x 2026-11-03 18:35 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2.50 $337 134.6x 2026-11-08 20:08 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2.50 $337 134.6x 2026-11-08 18:45 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [STEPH CURRY](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/STEPH%20CURRY) $2.50 $337 134.6x 2026-11-06 16:49 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2.50 $337 134.6x 2026-11-06 07:16 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Miami2 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Miami2%20skins.army) $2.50 $337 134.6x 2026-11-06 07:15 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2.50 $337 134.6x 2026-11-06 06:29 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=5-dagura) [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) Hidden $2.50 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) Hidden $2.50 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) [Olej CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Olej%20CS2.ME) $2.50 $19.74 7.90x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [$ODOMA$ skins.army CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%24ODOMA%24%20skins.army%20CS2.ME) $2.50 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [kaCzoR\_kill4Fun](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kaCzoR_kill4Fun) $2.50 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [♡ana\_ana\_ana♡](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%99%A1ana_ana_ana%E2%99%A1) $2.50 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [kaCzoR\_kill4Fun](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kaCzoR_kill4Fun) $2.50 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [♡ana\_ana\_ana♡](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%99%A1ana_ana_ana%E2%99%A1) $2.50 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [kaCzoR\_kill4Fun](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kaCzoR_kill4Fun) $2.50 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [♡ana\_ana\_ana♡](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%99%A1ana_ana_ana%E2%99%A1) $2.50 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $2.50 | 87.50% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $2.50 | 87.50% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $2.50 | 87.42% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $2.50 | 87.39% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $2.50 | 87.78% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $2.50 | 87.92% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $2.50 | 87.53% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $2.50 | 87.30% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $2.50 | 87.53% | 10 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $2.50 | 87.61% | 10 | | 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $2.50 | 87.34% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.50 | 87.88% | 10 | | 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $2.50 | 86.87% | 10 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.50 | 87.91% | 10 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $2.50 | 87.07% | 10 | | 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $2.50 | 86.99% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $2.50 | 87.65% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.7% gold 0.2% red 0.5% classified 3.4% violet 2.7% Uncommon 92.6% best hit $350 (140.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt