--- title: "50% RACE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "50% RACE JOKER ($138.02) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 37 items with odds, observed 75.02% over 314 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T03:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [50% RACE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · 50% RACE JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race-joker?window=all) Price · $138.02 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $120.77 from 37 items Observed RTP, 30d · 75.02% · 314 openings, odds method Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 76.90% ±17.72 205 openings 30 days · 75.02% ±14.30 314 openings since tracking started · 75.02% ±14.30 314 openings 32.0% 84.3% 136.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race-joker?window=24h) | 24 | 84.13% ±51.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race-joker?window=7d) | 205 | 76.90% ±17.7 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race-joker) | 314 | 75.02% ±14.3 | −1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race-joker?window=all) | 314 | 75.02% ±14.3 | −1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 345 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 25 | $753 | 24.9% | 9 | 13.8 | 0.65× | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 25 | $634 | 21.0% | 11 | 13.8 | 0.80× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $240 | 7.9% | 10 | 13.8 | 0.72× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $170 | 5.6% | 15 | 13.8 | 1.09× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $168 | 2.8% | 0 | 6.9 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $140 | 2.3% | 0 | 6.9 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $137 | 2.3% | 0 | 6.9 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $128 | 2.1% | 0 | 6.9 | 0.00× | | [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $112 | 3.7% | 20 | 13.8 | 1.45× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $107 | 3.5% | 18 | 13.8 | 1.30× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $88.13 | 2.9% | 13 | 13.8 | 0.94× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $75.37 | 2.5% | 21 | 13.8 | 1.52× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $70.41 | 2.3% | 16 | 13.8 | 1.16× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $60.37 | 2.0% | 19 | 13.8 | 1.38× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $53.66 | 0.6% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $51.98 | 0.6% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $51.34 | 0.6% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $48.70 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $45.63 | 1.5% | 15 | 13.8 | 1.09× | | [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $45.51 | 0.8% | 0 | 6.9 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $44.64 | 1.5% | 15 | 13.8 | 1.09× | | [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $43.60 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $43.36 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $41.02 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $38.01 | 0.4% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $36.46 | 1.2% | 15 | 13.8 | 1.09× | | [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $34.88 | 0.4% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $33.95 | 0.6% | 0 | 6.9 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $32.63 | 0.4% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $32.02 | 0.4% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $30.72 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $29.16 | 1.0% | 13 | 13.8 | 0.94× | | [P2000 \| Woodsman (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $26.16 | 0.4% | 0 | 6.9 | 0.00× | | [P250 \| Red Rock (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $20.56 | 0.7% | 17 | 13.8 | 1.23× | | [P2000 \| Woodsman (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $19.43 | 0.3% | 0 | 6.9 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $16.98 | 0.6% | 18 | 13.8 | 1.30× | | [P250 \| Cassette (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 17 | 13.8 | 1.23× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/50-race-joker`, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $140 $775 5.53x 2026-11-07 22:31 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $141 $774 5.49x 2026-11-05 13:22 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $141 $774 5.49x 2026-11-04 22:42 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $141 $774 5.49x 2026-11-04 06:49 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $141 $774 5.49x 2026-11-04 06:49 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $141 $774 5.49x 2026-11-03 20:52 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $138 $762 5.50x 2026-11-09 19:12 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $139 $760 5.46x 2026-11-10 19:20 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $139 $760 5.46x 2026-11-10 19:17 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [XITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XITO) $140 $644 4.59x 2026-11-07 11:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=50-race-joker) [AK-47 | The Oligarch weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch) [Domision](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Domision) $138 $41.02 0.30x 2026-11-11 22:26 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) [Barack Oblizmijaja](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Barack%20Oblizmijaja) $138 $170 1.23x 2026-11-11 22:10 UTC [USP-S | Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) Hidden $138 $16.98 0.12x 2026-11-11 22:08 UTC [M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) Hidden $138 $75.37 0.55x 2026-11-11 22:08 UTC [USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) Hidden $138 $45.63 0.33x 2026-11-11 22:08 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [junio](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/junio) $138 $240 1.74x 2026-11-11 22:08 UTC [USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) Hidden $138 $47.44 0.34x 2026-11-11 21:47 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) Hidden $138 $26.68 0.19x 2026-11-11 21:47 UTC [M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $138 $36.37 0.26x 2026-11-11 21:47 UTC [AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $138 $61.70 0.45x 2026-11-11 21:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC | $138 | 87.50% | 37 | | 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $138 | 87.50% | 37 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $139 | 87.50% | 37 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $138 | 87.50% | 37 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $139 | 87.50% | 37 | | 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $140 | 87.50% | 37 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $139 | 87.50% | 37 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $140 | 87.50% | 37 | | 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $142 | 87.50% | 37 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $141 | 87.50% | 37 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $142 | 87.50% | 37 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $141 | 87.50% | 37 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 8.0% covert 37.3% epic 4.0% red 17.3% sunny 4.0% classified 4.0% Ancient 4.0% restricted 6.0% rare 1.3% violet 6.0% mil spec 4.0% milspec 4.0% best hit $775 (5.53x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt