---
title: "50% RACE case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "50% RACE ($32.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 37 items with odds, observed 87.61% over 6,868 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [50% RACE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · 50% RACE

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race?window=all)

Price · $32.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $28.44 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.61% · 6,868 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 50.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.44% ±6.37 772 openings

7 days · 87.59% ±2.37 5,685 openings

30 days · 87.61% ±2.16 6,868 openings

since tracking started · 87.61% ±2.16 6,868 openings

80.5% 87.5% 94.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race?window=24h) | 772 | 87.44% ±6.37 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race?window=7d) | 5,685 | 87.59% ±2.37 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race) | 6,868 | 87.61% ±2.16 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/50-race?window=all) | 6,868 | 87.61% ±2.16 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,868 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $753 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 5,000 | $634 | 0.4% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.91× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $240 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.49× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $170 | 0.5% | 7 | 6.2 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $168 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $146 | 1.0% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $138 | 1.0% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,667 | $120 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $112 | 2.0% | 30 | 34.3 | 0.87× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $108 | 1.9% | 45 | 34.3 | 1.31× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $88.13 | 2.2% | 55 | 48.1 | 1.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $76.15 | 7.7% | 192 | 197.1 | 0.97× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $68.50 | 7.7% | 199 | 219.1 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $61.70 | 7.7% | 246 | 243.1 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $55.91 | 2.5% | 0 | 87.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $53.66 | 2.6% | 0 | 94.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $53.47 | 2.6% | 0 | 95.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 99 | $53.32 | 1.9% | 0 | 69.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $47.44 | 7.7% | 302 | 316.6 | 0.95× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $47.05 | 3.3% | 0 | 136.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $44.98 | 7.7% | 355 | 333.8 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $44.82 | 2.4% | 0 | 104.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $42.46 | 2.5% | 0 | 116.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $38.68 | 2.8% | 0 | 140.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $38.45 | 2.6% | 0 | 133.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $36.37 | 7.7% | 393 | 412.8 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $35.52 | 2.4% | 0 | 132.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $34.82 | 4.4% | 0 | 247.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $33.48 | 2.6% | 0 | 149.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $32.02 | 1.1% | 0 | 68.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $31.56 | 1.0% | 0 | 59.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $26.68 | 2.5% | 162 | 182.7 | 0.89× |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 86 | $26.16 | 1.1% | 0 | 79.7 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Rock (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $20.56 | 2.2% | 234 | 208.8 | 1.12× |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $19.94 | 1.2% | 0 | 120.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $17.03 | 2.0% | 229 | 229.4 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-minimal-wear) | 36.8% | $0.14 | 0.2% | 2,600 | 2528.1 | 1.03× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/50-race`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $32.50 $644 19.81x 2026-11-07 15:28 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $32.50 $644 19.80x 2026-11-08 16:02 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $32.50 $637 19.61x 2026-11-10 00:37 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $32.50 $637 19.59x 2026-11-08 23:06 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=50-race)

[AWP | Chrome Cannon weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon) [\*LiSeKGG\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/*LiSeKGG*-76561198743278339) $32.50 $33.94 1.04x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC

[P250 | Cassette (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-minimal-wear) [\*LiSeKGG\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/*LiSeKGG*-76561198743278339) $32.50 $0.14 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC

[USP-S | Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) [\*LiSeKGG\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/*LiSeKGG*-76561198743278339) $32.50 $17.03 0.52x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC

[P250 | Cassette (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-minimal-wear) [\*LiSeKGG\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/*LiSeKGG*-76561198743278339) $32.50 $0.14 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC

[P250 | Cassette (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-minimal-wear) [\*LiSeKGG\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/*LiSeKGG*-76561198743278339) $32.50 $0.14 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC

[P250 | Cassette (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-minimal-wear) [\*LiSeKGG\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/*LiSeKGG*-76561198743278339) $32.50 $0.14 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC

[M4A4 | Full Throttle weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle) [\*LiSeKGG\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/*LiSeKGG*-76561198743278339) $32.50 $39.15 1.20x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC

[M4A4 | Full Throttle weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle) [\*LiSeKGG\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/*LiSeKGG*-76561198743278339) $32.50 $39.15 1.20x 2026-11-11 17:54 UTC

[Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) [\*LiSeKGG\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/*LiSeKGG*-76561198743278339) $32.50 $44.98 1.38x 2026-11-11 17:54 UTC

[AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) [\*LiSeKGG\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/*LiSeKGG*-76561198743278339) $32.50 $61.70 1.90x 2026-11-11 17:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $32.50 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $32.50 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $32.50 | 87.83% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $32.50 | 87.98% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $32.50 | 87.79% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $32.50 | 87.91% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $32.50 | 87.97% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $32.50 | 87.99% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $32.50 | 87.75% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $32.50 | 87.88% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $32.50 | 87.94% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $32.50 | 87.85% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $32.50 | 87.94% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $32.50 | 87.69% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $32.50 | 87.68% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $32.50 | 87.85% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $32.50 | 87.93% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $32.50 | 87.68% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $32.50 | 87.99% | 37 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $32.50 | 87.83% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 3.2% covert 16.9% epic 0.0% red 17.6% sunny 0.7% classified 3.5% Ancient 4.9% restricted 7.2% rare 1.0% violet 4.8% mil spec 3.3% milspec 36.8% best hit $644 (19.81x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt