---
title: "AFK JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "AFK JOKER ($461.59) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 34 items with odds, observed 89.97% over 648 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [AFK JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · AFK JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk-joker?window=all)

Price · $461.59

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $403.89 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.97% · 648 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 94.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 10 openings · below min

7 days · 82.98% ±27.67 501 openings

30 days · 89.97% ±24.32 648 openings

since tracking started · 89.97% ±24.32 648 openings

-0.5% 102.8% 206.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk-joker?window=24h) | 10 | 10.13% ±195.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk-joker?window=7d) | 501 | 82.98% ±27.7 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk-joker) | 648 | 89.97% ±24.3 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk-joker?window=all) | 648 | 89.97% ±24.3 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 651 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $6,395 | 88.0% | 37 | 36.2 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $231 | 3.2% | 42 | 36.2 | 1.16× |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $146 | 2.0% | 35 | 36.2 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $95.58 | 1.3% | 33 | 36.2 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $80.54 | 1.1% | 36 | 36.2 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $74.67 | 0.5% | 0 | 18.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 72 | $72.52 | 0.2% | 0 | 9.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $66.66 | 0.9% | 33 | 36.2 | 0.91× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $66.08 | 0.9% | 0 | 36.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $60.74 | 0.4% | 0 | 18.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $33.32 | 0.1% | 0 | 9.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $26.61 | 0.4% | 0 | 36.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $21.99 | 0.1% | 0 | 9.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $20.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 9.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $15.43 | 0.2% | 0 | 36.2 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $14.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.0 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $14.38 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.0 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $14.35 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $13.36 | 0.1% | 0 | 12.1 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $13.27 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $9.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 12.1 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) | 1 in 18 | $9.03 | 0.1% | 32 | 36.2 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $8.89 | 0.0% | 0 | 12.1 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $4.38 | 0.1% | 34 | 36.2 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $3.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 18.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $3.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $1.67 | 0.0% | 0 | 12.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $1.45 | 0.0% | 0 | 18.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $0.89 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $0.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 12.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 12.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-well-worn) | 1 in 90 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/afk-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $464 $6,432 13.87x 2026-11-09 22:56 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $464 $6,432 13.85x 2026-11-08 17:48 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [feinzy](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/feinzy) $463 $6,432 13.90x 2026-11-07 13:11 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $463 $6,432 13.90x 2026-11-06 22:29 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $463 $6,432 13.90x 2026-11-06 22:28 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $463 $6,432 13.90x 2026-11-06 22:27 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [Kuba](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Kuba) $463 $6,432 13.90x 2026-11-05 17:35 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $463 $6,432 13.90x 2026-11-05 17:35 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $463 $6,432 13.90x 2026-11-05 17:34 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $463 $6,432 13.90x 2026-11-05 17:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=afk-joker)

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $462 $0.99 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $462 $36.04 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $462 $36.04 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[M4A1-S | Basilisk weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $462 $10.68 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $462 $66.66 0.14x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $462 $9.03 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[Tec-9 | Brother weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $462 $1.06 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[P90 | Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $462 $146 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[P90 | Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) [DyByNy](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/DyByNy) $462 $146 0.32x 2026-11-10 20:34 UTC

[P2000 | Imperial Dragon weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon) [DyByNy](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/DyByNy) $462 $14.12 0.03x 2026-11-10 20:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $462 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $462 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $464 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $464 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $464 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $463 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $463 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $463 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $462 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $463 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $463 | 87.50% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 22.2% classified 20.8% restricted 10.2% pink 16.7% Classified 1.4% violet 10.9% exotic 5.6% #8847ff 3.0% #4b69ff 5.6% Mythical 3.7% best hit $6,432 (13.87x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt