---
title: "AFK case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "AFK ($5.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 34 items with odds, observed 85.05% over 10.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [AFK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · AFK

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $4.37 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.05% · 10.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 52.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.48% ±46.93 927 openings

7 days · 85.70% ±14.81 8,944 openings

30 days · 85.05% ±13.87 10.1K openings

since tracking started · 85.05% ±13.87 10.1K openings

38.0% 85.5% 133.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk?window=24h) | 927 | 85.48% ±46.9 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk?window=7d) | 8,944 | 85.70% ±14.8 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk) | 10.1K | 85.05% ±13.9 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/afk?window=all) | 10.1K | 85.05% ±13.9 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $6,395 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 1,923 | $231 | 2.7% | 9 | 5.3 | 1.70× |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,220 | $146 | 2.7% | 16 | 8.3 | 1.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 800 | $95.58 | 2.7% | 8 | 12.7 | 0.63× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-factory-new) | 1 in 671 | $80.54 | 2.7% | 14 | 15.1 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 1,389 | $74.67 | 1.2% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $72.52 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 559 | $66.66 | 2.7% | 15 | 18.2 | 0.82× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $66.08 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 917 | $60.74 | 1.5% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,266 | $33.32 | 0.6% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-minimal-wear) | 1 in 694 | $26.61 | 0.9% | 0 | 14.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 559 | $21.99 | 0.9% | 0 | 18.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 485 | $20.50 | 1.0% | 0 | 20.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $15.43 | 6.5% | 0 | 188.6 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 114 | $14.46 | 2.9% | 0 | 89.0 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 113 | $14.38 | 2.9% | 0 | 90.1 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $14.35 | 2.9% | 0 | 90.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 99 | $13.36 | 3.1% | 0 | 102.2 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $13.27 | 3.2% | 0 | 105.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $9.80 | 5.7% | 0 | 260.1 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) | 1 in 13 | $9.03 | 16.3% | 746 | 800.4 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $8.89 | 6.3% | 0 | 316.0 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-factory-new) | 11.2% | $4.38 | 11.3% | 1,173 | 1143.2 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $3.64 | 2.9% | 0 | 351.8 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-factory-new) | 1 in 197 | $3.08 | 0.4% | 0 | 51.5 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1.67 | 1.0% | 0 | 253.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 12.6% | $1.45 | 4.2% | 0 | 1275.9 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $0.89 | 0.6% | 0 | 292.4 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.83 | 1.3% | 0 | 675.6 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.46 | 0.8% | 0 | 736.7 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 15.2% | $0.46 | 1.6% | 0 | 1543.4 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.44 | 0.8% | 0 | 783.9 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.41 | 0.8% | 0 | 868.6 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/afk`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=afk)

[Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) [NRForceTomi](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/NRForceTomi) $5.00 $9.03 1.81x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-factory-new) [NRForceTomi](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/NRForceTomi) $5.00 $4.38 0.88x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech) Hidden $5.00 $0.69 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 $4.38 0.88x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[Tec-9 | Brother weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother) Hidden $5.00 $0.53 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[Tec-9 | Brother weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother) [SoBoL BuK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SoBoL%20BuK) $5.00 $0.53 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech) Hidden $5.00 $0.69 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) Hidden $5.00 $9.03 1.81x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[M4A1-S | Basilisk weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk) [RuJiRu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/RuJiRu) $5.00 $9.91 1.98x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-factory-new) [McLovin1889](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/McLovin1889) $5.00 $4.38 0.88x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $5.00 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $5.00 | 87.36% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $5.00 | 87.69% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $5.00 | 88.12% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $5.00 | 87.81% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $5.00 | 88.13% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $5.00 | 87.81% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $5.00 | 86.88% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $5.00 | 88.13% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $5.00 | 87.63% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $5.00 | 87.23% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $5.00 | 87.75% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $5.00 | 87.78% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $5.00 | 87.77% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $5.00 | 87.73% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $5.00 | 87.08% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $5.00 | 87.25% | 34 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $5.00 | 87.61% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.4% classified 4.3% restricted 4.6% pink 2.0% Classified 0.1% violet 49.5% exotic 7.9% #8847ff 10.8% #4b69ff 11.2% Mythical 9.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt