---
title: "ALIEN JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "ALIEN JOKER ($74.37) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.51% from 53 items with odds, observed 101.94% over 701 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:01Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [ALIEN JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · ALIEN JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien-joker?window=all)

Price · $74.37

Advertised RTP · 87.51% · EV $65.08 from 53 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 101.94% · 701 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 67 openings · below min

7 days · 103.59% ±15.89 568 openings

30 days · 101.94% ±14.30 701 openings

since tracking started · 101.94% ±14.30 701 openings

69.5% 116.5% 163.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.57% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (87.63% – 116.24%, 701 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien-joker?window=24h) | 67 | 116.49% ±46.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien-joker?window=7d) | 568 | 103.59% ±15.9 | +2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien-joker) | 701 | 101.94% ±14.3 | +2.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien-joker?window=all) | 701 | 101.94% ±14.3 | +2.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 744 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 21 | $634 | 46.4% | 41 | 35.4 | 1.16× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $219 | 16.0% | 43 | 35.4 | 1.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $210 | 15.4% | 40 | 35.4 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $166 | 6.1% | 0 | 17.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $121 | 4.4% | 0 | 17.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $87.84 | 2.1% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $57.30 | 1.4% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $53.63 | 1.3% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $48.44 | 1.2% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $34.36 | 0.8% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $28.27 | 0.7% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $17.07 | 0.3% | 0 | 8.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $16.80 | 1.2% | 32 | 35.4 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $9.38 | 0.2% | 0 | 8.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $8.86 | 0.2% | 0 | 8.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $8.73 | 0.2% | 0 | 8.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $6.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.9 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $6.67 | 0.2% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $6.28 | 0.2% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $5.86 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $5.51 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $5.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $5.17 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $4.61 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $4.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $4.24 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.9 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $3.89 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $3.29 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $3.11 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $3.04 | 0.1% | 0 | 17.7 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $2.75 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $2.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $2.51 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $1.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 17.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $1.97 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $1.96 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $1.39 | 0.1% | 0 | 17.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $1.33 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $1.27 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $1.16 | 0.1% | 45 | 35.4 | 1.27× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 84 | $1.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.9 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $0.92 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $0.90 | 0.0% | 0 | 17.7 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.1 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.1 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.1 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $0.17 | 0.0% | 0 | 17.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 17.7 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Vendetta (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-vendetta-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 31 | 35.4 | 0.87× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/alien-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $75.35 $647 8.58x 2026-11-05 22:38 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $75.35 $647 8.58x 2026-11-05 22:38 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $75.35 $647 8.58x 2026-11-05 20:17 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $75.35 $647 8.58x 2026-11-05 17:05 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Kostu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Kostu) $75.35 $647 8.58x 2026-11-05 17:05 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $76.03 $647 8.51x 2026-11-04 23:30 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $76.03 $647 8.51x 2026-11-04 08:46 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $76.03 $647 8.51x 2026-11-04 08:45 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $76.03 $647 8.51x 2026-11-04 08:44 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $76.03 $647 8.51x 2026-11-04 06:48 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=alien-joker)

[Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) Hidden $74.37 $1.16 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC

[Negev | dev\_texture weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture) Hidden $74.37 $1.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC

[AWP | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream) Hidden $74.37 $53.12 0.71x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled) [Wuj WodzU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Wuj%20WodzU) $74.37 $9.24 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) [MİLESON](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/M%C4%B0LESON) $74.37 $16.80 0.23x 2026-11-11 11:14 UTC

[P2000 | Pulse weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse) [MİLESON](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/M%C4%B0LESON) $74.37 $3.18 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:14 UTC

[AK-47 | Vulcan weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan) Hidden $74.37 $144 1.93x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[M4A4 | Steel Work weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work) Hidden $74.37 $0.10 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate) Hidden $74.37 $5.80 0.08x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[M4A4 | Full Throttle weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Death13) $74.37 $50.15 0.67x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $74.37 | 87.51% | 53 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $74.68 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $74.37 | 87.51% | 53 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $74.68 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $74.64 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $74.46 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $75.60 | 87.49% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $75.45 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $75.42 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $74.76 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $75.27 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $75.42 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $75.35 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $75.42 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $75.35 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $75.06 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $76.03 | 87.50% | 53 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 4.8% covert 14.3% red 7.9% Ancient 1.6% uncommon 3.6% classified 4.8% pink 9.5% restricted 11.5% mil spec 9.9% Mythical 6.7% Legendary 1.2% violet 8.7% #4b69ff 1.6% #8847ff 1.6% Rare 2.8% blueLight 7.1% Uncommon 2.4% best hit $647 (8.58x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.51 on average: an expected loss of $12.49 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt