---
title: "ALIEN case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "ALIEN ($1.25) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 53 items with odds, observed 82.44% over 31.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [ALIEN](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · ALIEN

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien?window=all)

Price · $1.25

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $1.09 from 53 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.44% · 31.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 13.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.54% ±11.94 3,645 openings

7 days · 82.30% ±4.42 27.1K openings

30 days · 82.44% ±4.11 31.5K openings

since tracking started · 82.44% ±4.11 31.5K openings

73.0% 85.5% 98.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.31% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.33% – 86.55%, 31,455 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien?window=24h) | 3,645 | 85.54% ±11.9 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien?window=7d) | 27.1K | 82.30% ±4.42 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien) | 31.5K | 82.44% ±4.11 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/alien?window=all) | 31.5K | 82.44% ±4.11 | −2.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 50,000 | $634 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 12,500 | $219 | 1.6% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $210 | 1.9% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.27× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $166 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $121 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $87.84 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $57.30 | 0.5% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $53.63 | 0.5% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $48.44 | 0.4% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $34.36 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,762 | $28.27 | 0.5% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $17.07 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 1,351 | $16.80 | 1.1% | 18 | 23.4 | 0.77× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,545 | $9.38 | 0.2% | 0 | 6.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,545 | $8.86 | 0.2% | 0 | 6.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $8.73 | 0.2% | 0 | 9.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $6.74 | 0.3% | 0 | 15.8 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $6.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 2,941 | $6.28 | 0.2% | 0 | 10.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 1,818 | $5.86 | 0.3% | 0 | 17.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 1,818 | $5.51 | 0.3% | 0 | 17.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-well-worn) | 1 in 1,562 | $5.43 | 0.3% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,408 | $5.17 | 0.3% | 0 | 22.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $4.61 | 3.2% | 0 | 242.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $4.43 | 4.6% | 0 | 359.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 110 | $4.24 | 3.5% | 0 | 287.4 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $3.89 | 3.1% | 0 | 275.7 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 82 | $3.29 | 3.7% | 0 | 385.3 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-factory-new) | 1 in 763 | $3.11 | 0.4% | 0 | 41.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $3.04 | 3.0% | 0 | 338.8 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $2.75 | 3.7% | 0 | 468.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $2.66 | 3.8% | 0 | 496.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $2.51 | 4.1% | 0 | 557.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $1.97 | 2.4% | 0 | 412.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $1.97 | 3.0% | 0 | 522.0 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $1.96 | 2.8% | 0 | 488.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.39 | 9.0% | 0 | 2243.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.33 | 4.8% | 0 | 1255.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $1.27 | 5.1% | 0 | 1376.8 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) | 17.2% | $1.16 | 18.3% | 4,670 | 5444.4 | 0.86× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $1.01 | 2.1% | 0 | 734.8 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $0.92 | 1.3% | 0 | 505.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $0.90 | 1.5% | 0 | 565.2 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-minimal-wear) | 1 in 237 | $0.80 | 0.3% | 0 | 133.3 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-field-tested) | 1 in 98 | $0.46 | 0.4% | 0 | 323.0 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $0.44 | 0.4% | 0 | 346.7 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-battle-scarred) | 1 in 91 | $0.44 | 0.4% | 0 | 347.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $0.41 | 0.5% | 0 | 382.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-well-worn) | 1 in 79 | $0.40 | 0.5% | 0 | 397.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $0.40 | 0.5% | 0 | 397.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $0.17 | 0.2% | 0 | 335.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-minimal-wear) | 17.1% | $0.03 | 0.5% | 0 | 5385.0 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Vendetta (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-vendetta-minimal-wear) | 20.1% | $0.03 | 0.6% | 6,641 | 6337.4 | 1.05× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/alien`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) Hidden $1.25 $222 177.6x 2026-11-03 21:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) Hidden $1.25 $210 168.1x 2026-11-09 20:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) Hidden $1.25 $210 168.0x 2026-11-10 16:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) Hidden $1.25 $208 166.4x 2026-11-09 16:17 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=alien)

[MP7 | Special Delivery weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery) Hidden $1.25 $1.39 1.11x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[P2000 | Pulse weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse) Hidden $1.25 $1.46 1.17x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[MP7 | Special Delivery weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery) [karbon](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/karbon) $1.25 $1.39 1.11x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[M4A4 | Steel Work weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work) Hidden $1.25 $0.04 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[M4A4 | Steel Work weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work) Hidden $1.25 $0.04 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[M4A4 | Steel Work weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work) [karbon](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/karbon) $1.25 $0.04 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[Negev | dev\_texture weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture) Hidden $1.25 $0.58 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heat Treated weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated) Hidden $1.25 $1.61 1.29x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[FAMAS | Vendetta (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-vendetta-minimal-wear) [karbon](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/karbon) $1.25 $0.03 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[M4A4 | Steel Work weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work) [takeN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/takeN) $1.25 $0.04 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.25 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1.25 | 87.88% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $1.25 | 87.53% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1.25 | 86.58% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $1.25 | 87.18% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $1.25 | 86.59% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $1.25 | 86.97% | 53 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $1.25 | 86.59% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $1.25 | 87.35% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $1.25 | 87.30% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.25 | 88.15% | 53 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.25 | 87.13% | 53 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.25 | 87.17% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $1.25 | 88.13% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $1.25 | 87.30% | 53 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $1.25 | 87.49% | 53 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.0% covert 0.0% red 0.1% Ancient 0.0% uncommon 0.1% classified 0.1% pink 9.4% restricted 22.0% mil spec 8.6% Mythical 5.9% Legendary 0.1% violet 9.8% #4b69ff 1.5% #8847ff 1.6% Rare 2.8% blueLight 21.1% Uncommon 17.1% best hit $222 (177.6x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt