---
title: "ANTIDOTE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "ANTIDOTE JOKER ($36.88) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 65 items with odds, observed 94.11% over 1,357 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:33Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [ANTIDOTE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · ANTIDOTE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote-joker?window=all)

Price · $36.88

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $32.27 from 65 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.11% · 1,357 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.42% ±22.30 157 openings

7 days · 93.02% ±7.95 1,228 openings

30 days · 94.11% ±7.56 1,357 openings

since tracking started · 94.11% ±7.56 1,357 openings

59.5% 82.5% 105.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote-joker?window=24h) | 157 | 82.42% ±22.3 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote-joker?window=7d) | 1,228 | 93.02% ±7.95 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote-joker) | 1,357 | 94.11% ±7.56 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote-joker?window=all) | 1,357 | 94.11% ±7.56 | +1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 65 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,477 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $238 | 24.6% | 59 | 49.2 | 1.20× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $150 | 15.5% | 56 | 49.2 | 1.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $143 | 7.4% | 0 | 24.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $137 | 7.1% | 0 | 24.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $65.44 | 6.8% | 46 | 49.2 | 0.93× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $58.37 | 6.0% | 64 | 49.2 | 1.30× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $44.05 | 1.1% | 0 | 12.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $42.23 | 1.1% | 0 | 12.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $41.83 | 4.3% | 46 | 49.2 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $38.14 | 1.0% | 0 | 12.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $37.68 | 1.0% | 0 | 12.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $36.22 | 1.2% | 0 | 16.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $35.17 | 1.2% | 0 | 16.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $26.30 | 0.7% | 0 | 12.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $23.75 | 0.8% | 0 | 16.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $23.72 | 0.8% | 0 | 16.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $23.20 | 0.8% | 0 | 16.4 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $22.15 | 2.3% | 38 | 49.2 | 0.77× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $21.87 | 1.1% | 0 | 24.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $20.90 | 0.7% | 0 | 16.4 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $19.95 | 1.0% | 0 | 24.6 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $19.65 | 2.0% | 44 | 49.2 | 0.89× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 150 | $17.82 | 0.4% | 0 | 9.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 120 | $16.28 | 0.4% | 0 | 12.3 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $15.10 | 0.5% | 0 | 16.4 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $14.66 | 0.5% | 0 | 16.4 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 90 | $14.10 | 0.5% | 0 | 16.4 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $13.83 | 0.7% | 0 | 24.6 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) | 1 in 150 | $13.14 | 0.3% | 0 | 9.8 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $12.99 | 0.7% | 0 | 24.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $11.45 | 0.3% | 0 | 12.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $10.57 | 0.3% | 0 | 12.3 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $9.85 | 1.0% | 42 | 49.2 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $9.77 | 0.5% | 0 | 24.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $8.90 | 0.2% | 0 | 12.3 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $8.59 | 0.9% | 52 | 49.2 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $8.17 | 0.8% | 38 | 49.2 | 0.77× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $7.60 | 0.2% | 0 | 12.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $7.60 | 0.2% | 0 | 12.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $7.08 | 0.2% | 0 | 12.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $6.73 | 0.2% | 0 | 16.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $6.67 | 0.3% | 0 | 24.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $6.56 | 0.2% | 0 | 12.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $6.41 | 0.2% | 0 | 12.3 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $6.07 | 0.6% | 51 | 49.2 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $5.88 | 0.2% | 0 | 12.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $5.56 | 0.1% | 0 | 12.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-well-worn) | 1 in 90 | $4.99 | 0.2% | 0 | 16.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $4.45 | 0.2% | 0 | 16.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 150 | $2.94 | 0.1% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 150 | $2.56 | 0.1% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) | 1 in 150 | $1.63 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-well-worn) | 1 in 150 | $1.42 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 1 in 150 | $1.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-well-worn) | 1 in 150 | $1.37 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 150 | $1.33 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-battle-scarred) | 1 in 150 | $1.32 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $1.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 16.4 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $0.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 24.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $0.58 | 0.1% | 57 | 49.2 | 1.16× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $0.50 | 0.0% | 0 | 24.6 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 38 | 49.2 | 0.77× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 54 | 49.2 | 1.10× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 16.4 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $0.35 | 0.0% | 0 | 16.4 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/antidote-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=antidote-joker)

[Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) [Izan](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Izan) $36.88 $0.46 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:25 UTC

[P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.88 $6.07 0.16x 2026-11-11 21:23 UTC

[Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) [Back2R](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Back2R) $36.88 $0.46 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:23 UTC

[FAMAS | Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) Hidden $36.88 $9.85 0.27x 2026-11-11 21:20 UTC

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins) [kieron](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kieron) $36.88 $0.67 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:20 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled) Hidden $36.88 $9.15 0.25x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC

[P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.88 $6.07 0.16x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC

[Galil AR | Eco weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco) Hidden $36.88 $14.62 0.40x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) [A0VX| AX1ON](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/A0VX%7C%20AX1ON) $36.88 $41.83 1.13x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC

[FAMAS | Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) Hidden $36.88 $9.85 0.27x 2026-11-11 20:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $36.88 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $37.07 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $36.88 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $37.07 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $36.80 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $36.90 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $36.52 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $36.80 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $37.45 | 87.49% | 65 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $37.04 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $37.49 | 87.49% | 65 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $37.04 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $36.95 | 87.49% | 65 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $36.83 | 87.51% | 65 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $37.26 | 87.49% | 65 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $37.19 | 87.49% | 65 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $37.09 | 87.72% | 65 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $37.19 | 87.49% | 65 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $37.36 | 87.51% | 65 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 15.8% red 3.3% classified 29.2% Ancient 0.8% pink 14.4% #d32ee6 1.7% restricted 5.3% Legendary 7.2% violet 10.7% Classified 0.8% Mythical 0.7% gray 1.1% Rare 6.7% grey 2.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt