---
title: "ANTIDOTE case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "ANTIDOTE ($5.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 65 items with odds, observed 87.62% over 7,291 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [ANTIDOTE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · ANTIDOTE

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote?window=all)

Price · $5.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $4.81 from 65 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.62% · 7,291 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.69% ±9.75 885 openings

7 days · 89.07% ±3.79 6,169 openings

30 days · 87.62% ±3.49 7,291 openings

since tracking started · 87.62% ±3.49 7,291 openings

74.5% 84.7% 95.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote?window=24h) | 885 | 84.69% ±9.75 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote?window=7d) | 6,169 | 89.07% ±3.79 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote) | 7,291 | 87.62% ±3.49 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/antidote?window=all) | 7,291 | 87.62% ±3.49 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 65 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,294 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $239 | 1.0% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.74× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $154 | 1.0% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.37× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $138 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $136 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $70.07 | 1.0% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $53.09 | 1.0% | 9 | 6.6 | 1.37× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $46.94 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $42.49 | 1.0% | 12 | 8.0 | 1.50× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $39.86 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $36.92 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,500 | $36.11 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $35.83 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $33.66 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $26.48 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $24.08 | 0.4% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,429 | $23.06 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $22.47 | 0.4% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $22.35 | 0.9% | 32 | 14.6 | 2.19× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $21.31 | 0.4% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,111 | $20.78 | 0.4% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $20.57 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $19.48 | 4.7% | 0 | 84.6 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $18.62 | 9.0% | 136 | 169.2 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 323 | $16.14 | 1.0% | 0 | 22.6 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $14.29 | 3.0% | 0 | 72.9 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 99 | $14.21 | 3.0% | 0 | 73.7 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 98 | $14.18 | 3.0% | 0 | 74.4 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $13.61 | 3.3% | 0 | 85.3 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $12.85 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $12.58 | 3.6% | 0 | 99.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $11.04 | 1.6% | 0 | 51.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 175 | $10.25 | 1.2% | 0 | 41.6 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $10.13 | 6.9% | 242 | 238.5 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 147 | $9.53 | 1.3% | 0 | 49.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $9.45 | 2.9% | 0 | 106.5 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $8.48 | 6.9% | 236 | 285.2 | 0.83× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $8.06 | 5.5% | 222 | 240.7 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $7.80 | 1.8% | 0 | 82.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 85 | $7.67 | 1.9% | 0 | 85.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 102 | $6.81 | 1.4% | 0 | 71.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $6.78 | 1.5% | 0 | 75.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $6.75 | 3.2% | 0 | 167.8 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $6.61 | 1.5% | 0 | 79.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $6.23 | 1.6% | 0 | 89.7 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $6.07 | 5.5% | 296 | 319.5 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $5.51 | 1.9% | 0 | 119.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 99 | $5.39 | 1.1% | 0 | 73.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $4.56 | 1.3% | 0 | 100.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $4.53 | 1.3% | 0 | 101.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 172 | $2.92 | 0.4% | 0 | 42.3 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $2.52 | 0.4% | 0 | 54.0 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $1.63 | 0.5% | 0 | 99.9 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $1.43 | 0.5% | 0 | 119.6 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $1.39 | 0.5% | 0 | 124.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $1.38 | 0.5% | 0 | 121.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $1.38 | 0.5% | 0 | 121.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $1.32 | 0.5% | 0 | 129.1 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 120 | $1.19 | 0.2% | 0 | 60.5 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $0.97 | 0.4% | 0 | 161.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.58 | 1.0% | 676 | 614.9 | 1.10× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.46 | 0.6% | 0 | 457.3 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.46 | 0.9% | 675 | 674.7 | 1.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.43 | 0.8% | 683 | 692.9 | 0.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.41 | 0.3% | 0 | 269.1 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.32 | 0.4% | 0 | 394.6 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/antidote`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=antidote)

[P250 | Red Tide weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide) [Dragu skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Dragu%20skins.army) $5.50 $0.59 0.11x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC

[Galil AR | Eco weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco) Hidden $5.50 $14.23 2.59x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC

[P250 | Red Tide weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide) Hidden $5.50 $0.59 0.11x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Light Rail weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail) Hidden $5.50 $1.65 0.30x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC

[Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) [EWU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/EWU) $5.50 $0.46 0.08x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor) Hidden $5.50 $7.80 1.42x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins) Hidden $5.50 $0.43 0.08x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $5.50 $0.43 0.08x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC

[Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) [EWU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/EWU) $5.50 $0.46 0.08x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC

[Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-field-tested) Hidden $5.50 $53.09 9.65x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $5.50 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $5.50 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $5.50 | 87.46% | 65 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $5.50 | 87.78% | 65 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $5.50 | 87.81% | 65 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $5.50 | 87.57% | 65 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $5.50 | 87.18% | 65 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $5.50 | 87.57% | 65 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $5.50 | 87.96% | 65 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $5.50 | 87.82% | 65 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $5.50 | 87.44% | 65 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $5.50 | 87.88% | 65 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $5.50 | 87.53% | 65 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $5.50 | 87.69% | 65 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $5.50 | 87.53% | 65 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $5.50 | 87.69% | 65 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $5.50 | 87.63% | 65 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $5.50 | 87.34% | 65 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $5.50 | 87.48% | 65 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $5.50 | 87.81% | 65 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.3% red 0.1% classified 15.3% Ancient 0.0% pink 14.3% restricted 8.9% #d32ee6 1.2% Legendary 7.0% violet 23.7% Classified 1.6% Mythical 0.7% gray 0.8% Rare 16.9% grey 9.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt