--- title: "ARABESQUE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "ARABESQUE JOKER ($892.57) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.50% from 16 items with odds, observed 78.00% over 435 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T18:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [ARABESQUE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · ARABESQUE JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque-joker?window=all) Price · $892.57 Advertised RTP · 90.50% · EV $807.77 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.00% · 435 openings, odds method Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 15 openings · below min 7 days · 77.23% ±20.59 373 openings 30 days · 78.00% ±19.09 435 openings since tracking started · 78.00% ±19.09 435 openings 27.0% 130.3% 233.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque-joker?window=24h) | 15 | 130.36% ±102.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque-joker?window=7d) | 373 | 77.23% ±20.6 | −1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque-joker) | 435 | 78.00% ±19.1 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque-joker?window=all) | 435 | 78.00% ±19.1 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 476 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $7,130 | 63.0% | 28 | 34.0 | 0.82× | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1,569 | 13.9% | 36 | 34.0 | 1.06× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1,157 | 10.2% | 31 | 34.0 | 0.91× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $401 | 1.8% | 0 | 17.0 | 0.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $250 | 2.2% | 26 | 34.0 | 0.76× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $201 | 0.9% | 0 | 17.0 | 0.00× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $185 | 0.8% | 0 | 17.0 | 0.00× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $172 | 1.5% | 28 | 34.0 | 0.82× | | [P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $158 | 1.4% | 44 | 34.0 | 1.29× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $141 | 1.2% | 35 | 34.0 | 1.03× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $82.19 | 0.4% | 0 | 17.0 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $78.21 | 0.7% | 32 | 34.0 | 0.94× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $77.08 | 0.7% | 37 | 34.0 | 1.09× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $55.28 | 0.5% | 36 | 34.0 | 1.06× | | [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $54.76 | 0.5% | 37 | 34.0 | 1.09× | | [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $33.08 | 0.3% | 35 | 34.0 | 1.03× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/arabesque-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $897 $7,191 8.02x 2026-11-04 23:13 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [ERCÜMENT ÇÖZER](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ERC%C3%9CMENT%20%C3%87%C3%96ZER) $897 $7,191 8.02x 2026-11-04 16:36 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $888 $7,191 8.10x 2026-11-04 13:23 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [ERCÜMENT ÇÖZER](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ERC%C3%9CMENT%20%C3%87%C3%96ZER) $888 $7,191 8.10x 2026-11-04 13:23 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $888 $7,191 8.10x 2026-11-04 13:21 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $900 $7,190 7.99x 2026-11-08 11:11 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $884 $7,190 8.13x 2026-11-04 00:38 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [Malutki Kamilek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Malutki%20Kamilek) $884 $7,190 8.13x 2026-11-03 22:18 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [Malutki Kamilek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Malutki%20Kamilek) $884 $7,190 8.13x 2026-11-03 22:18 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [LiN \_lt;3](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/LiN%20_lt%3B3) $884 $7,190 8.13x 2026-11-03 20:10 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=arabesque-joker) [★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $893 $250 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:32 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $893 $7,130 7.99x 2026-11-11 12:32 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-factory-new) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $893 $172 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:32 UTC [AK-47 | Fuel Injector weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $893 $301 0.34x 2026-11-11 12:32 UTC [P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $893 $158 0.18x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | POW! gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $893 $134 0.15x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $893 $77.08 0.09x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $893 $1,569 1.76x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [AUG | Lil' Pig (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-well-worn) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $893 $33.08 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [AUG | Lil' Pig (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-well-worn) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $893 $33.08 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $893 | 90.50% | 16 | | 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $890 | 90.50% | 16 | | 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $896 | 90.50% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $893 | 90.50% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $900 | 90.50% | 16 | | 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $896 | 90.50% | 16 | | 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $900 | 90.50% | 16 | | 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $886 | 90.50% | 16 | | 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $894 | 90.50% | 16 | | 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $886 | 90.50% | 16 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $886 | 90.50% | 16 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $897 | 90.50% | 16 | | 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $888 | 90.50% | 16 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $884 | 90.50% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 7.1% covert 42.9% extraordinary 7.1% pink 14.3% red 21.4% sunny 7.1% best hit $7,191 (8.02x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.50 on average: an expected loss of $9.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt