---
title: "ARABESQUE case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "ARABESQUE ($260.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 16 items with odds, observed 85.05% over 2,286 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [ARABESQUE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · ARABESQUE

A case on Casehug (PREMIUM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque?window=all)

Price · $260.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $227.49 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.05% · 2,286 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.36% ±22.42 248 openings

7 days · 85.78% ±8.32 1,856 openings

30 days · 85.05% ±7.46 2,286 openings

since tracking started · 85.05% ±7.46 2,286 openings

58.5% 81.5% 104.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque?window=24h) | 248 | 81.36% ±22.4 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque?window=7d) | 1,856 | 85.78% ±8.32 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque) | 2,286 | 85.05% ±7.46 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arabesque?window=all) | 2,286 | 85.05% ±7.46 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,286 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 370 | $7,130 | 8.5% | 7 | 6.2 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $1,569 | 8.6% | 31 | 28.3 | 1.09× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $1,157 | 8.5% | 47 | 38.4 | 1.22× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 23.7% | $401 | 41.7% | 0 | 541.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $253 | 5.2% | 108 | 106.1 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $200 | 2.9% | 0 | 76.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $183 | 1.2% | 0 | 34.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $172 | 4.0% | 118 | 121.2 | 0.97× |
| [P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $158 | 3.8% | 128 | 125.5 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $138 | 3.5% | 154 | 132.4 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $78.11 | 2.5% | 194 | 166.2 | 1.17× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $76.61 | 2.5% | 185 | 167.6 | 1.10× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $74.34 | 1.7% | 0 | 120.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $55.72 | 2.0% | 200 | 190.4 | 1.05× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $49.95 | 1.9% | 202 | 198.9 | 1.02× |
| [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-well-worn) | 10.2% | $32.85 | 1.5% | 252 | 232.9 | 1.08× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/arabesque`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $260 $7,190 27.66x 2026-11-06 23:24 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [ziomek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ziomek) $260 $7,130 27.42x 2026-11-08 13:08 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $260 $7,130 27.42x 2026-11-07 18:23 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $260 $7,127 27.41x 2026-11-08 04:23 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $260 $7,102 27.31x 2026-11-09 15:55 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [hossy](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/hossy) $260 $7,040 27.08x 2026-11-06 11:58 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [Suzii](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Suzii) $260 $7,040 27.08x 2026-11-05 23:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) [hossy](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/hossy) $260 $1,617 6.22x 2026-11-05 13:49 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) [hossy](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/hossy) $260 $1,617 6.22x 2026-11-05 13:39 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) [CRISTIANO RONALDO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CRISTIANO%20RONALDO) $260 $1,617 6.22x 2026-11-05 01:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=arabesque)

[★ Gut Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $260 $172 0.66x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | POW! gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow) Hidden $260 $98.29 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector) Hidden $260 $376 1.45x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [Wuj WodzU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Wuj%20WodzU) $260 $76.61 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector) Hidden $260 $376 1.45x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) Hidden $260 $138 0.53x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $260 $253 0.97x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | POW! gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow) [CICINKA67CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CICINKA67CS2.ME) $260 $98.29 0.38x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $260 $76.61 0.29x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

[AUG | Lil' Pig (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-well-worn) Hidden $260 $32.85 0.13x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $260 | 87.50% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $260 | 87.69% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $260 | 87.85% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $260 | 87.05% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $260 | 87.59% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $260 | 87.83% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $260 | 87.59% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $260 | 87.12% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $260 | 87.33% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $260 | 87.83% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $260 | 87.33% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $260 | 87.15% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $260 | 87.66% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $260 | 87.67% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $260 | 86.99% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $260 | 87.62% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $260 | 86.99% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $260 | 87.62% | 16 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $260 | 87.33% | 16 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $260 | 87.35% | 16 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $260 | 87.51% | 16 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $260 | 87.35% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $260 | 87.51% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.3% covert 48.2% extraordinary 6.8% pink 15.7% red 21.8% sunny 7.3% best hit $7,190 (27.66x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt