---
title: "ARCANA JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "ARCANA JOKER ($561.83) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.50% from 40 items with odds, observed 92.93% over 452 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [ARCANA JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · ARCANA JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana-joker?window=all)

Price · $561.83

Advertised RTP · 90.50% · EV $508.46 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.93% · 452 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.43% ±23.47 106 openings

7 days · 96.77% ±14.49 278 openings

30 days · 92.93% ±11.34 452 openings

since tracking started · 92.93% ±11.34 452 openings

57.5% 84.8% 112.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana-joker?window=24h) | 106 | 81.43% ±23.5 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana-joker?window=7d) | 278 | 96.77% ±14.5 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana-joker) | 452 | 92.93% ±11.3 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana-joker?window=all) | 452 | 92.93% ±11.3 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 761 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 24 | $2,286 | 18.7% | 28 | 31.7 | 0.88× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $1,870 | 15.3% | 31 | 31.7 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1,705 | 14.0% | 35 | 31.7 | 1.10× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 24 | $1,657 | 13.6% | 34 | 31.7 | 1.07× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 24 | $1,461 | 12.0% | 25 | 31.7 | 0.79× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 24 | $636 | 5.2% | 46 | 31.7 | 1.45× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $445 | 3.6% | 29 | 31.7 | 0.91× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $333 | 2.7% | 35 | 31.7 | 1.10× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $260 | 2.1% | 33 | 31.7 | 1.04× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 24 | $212 | 1.7% | 23 | 31.7 | 0.73× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $194 | 1.6% | 48 | 31.7 | 1.51× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $159 | 1.3% | 30 | 31.7 | 0.95× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $159 | 1.3% | 25 | 31.7 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $141 | 0.6% | 0 | 15.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $125 | 1.0% | 36 | 31.7 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $111 | 0.5% | 0 | 15.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $108 | 0.9% | 42 | 31.7 | 1.32× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $93.52 | 0.8% | 29 | 31.7 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $77.59 | 0.2% | 0 | 10.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $76.15 | 0.2% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $71.65 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $71.10 | 0.2% | 0 | 10.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $69.34 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $66.25 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $65.55 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $65.36 | 0.3% | 0 | 15.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $65.16 | 0.2% | 0 | 10.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $63.62 | 0.2% | 0 | 10.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $55.91 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $54.22 | 0.1% | 0 | 10.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $53.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $53.47 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $50.54 | 0.4% | 22 | 31.7 | 0.69× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $49.95 | 0.1% | 0 | 10.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $42.46 | 0.2% | 0 | 15.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 120 | $23.65 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $17.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $15.31 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $14.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $14.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/arcana-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $582 $2,432 4.18x 2026-11-03 12:56 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [XM1NN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XM1NN) $582 $2,432 4.18x 2026-11-02 23:55 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [XM1NN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XM1NN) $582 $2,432 4.18x 2026-11-02 23:55 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [XM1NN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XM1NN) $582 $2,432 4.18x 2026-11-02 23:52 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $582 $2,432 4.18x 2026-11-02 23:50 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $582 $2,432 4.18x 2026-11-02 22:55 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [GruchaGbałagan](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GruchaGba%C5%82agan) $580 $2,426 4.18x 2026-11-04 00:41 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $580 $2,426 4.18x 2026-11-04 00:39 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [BONUS CODE: ASLAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BONUS%20CODE%3A%20ASLAN) $580 $2,426 4.18x 2026-11-04 00:37 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $580 $2,426 4.18x 2026-11-04 00:37 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=arcana-joker)

[★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) Hidden $562 $1,870 3.33x 2026-11-11 20:48 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach) [mateous](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mateous) $562 $58.42 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:48 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $562 $636 1.13x 2026-11-11 20:48 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $562 $636 1.13x 2026-11-11 20:48 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-field-tested) Hidden $562 $50.54 0.09x 2026-11-11 20:48 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [RzygorzutCS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/RzygorzutCS2.ME) $562 $260 0.46x 2026-11-11 20:48 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $562 $212 0.38x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-field-tested) Hidden $562 $50.54 0.09x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $562 $159 0.28x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [mateous](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mateous) $562 $212 0.38x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $562 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $562 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $568 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $567 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $576 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $571 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $574 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $574 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $576 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $579 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $580 | 90.50% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 61.5% extraordinary 12.5% restricted 4.2% gold 4.2% epic 4.2% rare 4.2% Ancient 1.0% red 4.2% classified 4.2% best hit $2,432 (4.18x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.50 on average: an expected loss of $9.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt