---
title: "ARCANA case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "ARCANA ($120.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 40 items with odds, observed 87.31% over 2,930 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [ARCANA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · ARCANA

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana?window=all)

Price · $120.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $105.00 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.31% · 2,930 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.38% ±10.41 320 openings

7 days · 88.47% ±4.53 1,726 openings

30 days · 87.31% ±3.42 2,930 openings

since tracking started · 87.31% ±3.42 2,930 openings

83.0% 94.8% 106.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana?window=24h) | 320 | 95.38% ±10.4 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana?window=7d) | 1,726 | 88.47% ±4.53 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana) | 2,930 | 87.31% ±3.42 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/arcana?window=all) | 2,930 | 87.31% ±3.42 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,941 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 2,500 | $2,285 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,880 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,707 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,648 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,467 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.13× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 769 | $634 | 0.8% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.31× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $446 | 7.4% | 48 | 51.2 | 0.94× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $316 | 7.4% | 77 | 72.1 | 1.07× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $261 | 6.6% | 73 | 78.2 | 0.93× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 30 | $209 | 6.6% | 99 | 97.6 | 1.01× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $192 | 6.6% | 105 | 106.5 | 0.99× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $157 | 5.7% | 134 | 112.3 | 1.19× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $145 | 5.7% | 109 | 121.5 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $141 | 2.5% | 0 | 55.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $125 | 5.7% | 120 | 140.9 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $111 | 3.2% | 0 | 87.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $109 | 5.9% | 169 | 167.3 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $93.57 | 5.4% | 180 | 177.9 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $75.96 | 1.1% | 0 | 44.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $74.67 | 1.4% | 0 | 57.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $71.74 | 1.3% | 0 | 54.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $71.51 | 1.1% | 0 | 47.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $67.12 | 1.7% | 0 | 79.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 70 | $66.23 | 0.9% | 0 | 42.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $65.71 | 1.2% | 0 | 54.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $65.16 | 1.2% | 0 | 54.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $65.16 | 1.5% | 0 | 69.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $60.74 | 1.5% | 0 | 77.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $54.96 | 1.4% | 0 | 79.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 53 | $54.68 | 1.0% | 0 | 55.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $53.92 | 1.4% | 0 | 81.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $51.70 | 1.0% | 0 | 59.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $50.37 | 3.7% | 240 | 227.9 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $48.87 | 1.0% | 0 | 64.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $43.38 | 2.1% | 0 | 146.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $21.97 | 0.3% | 0 | 46.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $16.00 | 0.4% | 0 | 72.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $15.10 | 0.4% | 0 | 79.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $15.02 | 0.4% | 0 | 79.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $14.72 | 0.4% | 0 | 87.1 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/arcana`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [BERKAY](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BERKAY) $120 $2,292 19.10x 2026-11-10 22:01 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [marisxyz](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/marisxyz) $120 $1,714 14.29x 2026-11-06 19:17 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [USE CODE FBB](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/USE%20CODE%20FBB) $120 $1,592 13.26x 2026-11-03 15:40 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $120 $1,483 12.36x 2026-11-09 16:19 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $120 $647 5.39x 2026-11-03 19:45 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $120 $647 5.39x 2026-11-03 19:45 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Scofield\_gda](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Scofield_gda) $120 $647 5.39x 2026-11-02 22:37 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $120 $644 5.36x 2026-11-05 05:11 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [LYSY\_HYPERCS2.MESKINS.ARMY](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/LYSY_HYPERCS2.MESKINS.ARMY) $120 $634 5.29x 2026-11-07 19:21 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=arcana)

[★ Kukri Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) [Łosiuuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%C5%81osiuuu) $120 $192 1.60x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[AK-47 | B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) Hidden $120 $93.57 0.78x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream) Hidden $120 $16.05 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC

[★ Kukri Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $120 $192 1.60x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov) [????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $120 $122 1.02x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC

[AK-47 | B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) [hossy](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/hossy) $120 $93.57 0.78x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $120 $125 1.05x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream) Hidden $120 $16.05 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $120 $125 1.05x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream) [CICINKA67CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CICINKA67CS2.ME) $120 $16.05 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $120 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $120 | 87.57% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $120 | 87.37% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $120 | 87.56% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $120 | 87.59% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $120 | 87.77% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $120 | 87.59% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $120 | 87.79% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $120 | 87.98% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $120 | 87.60% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $120 | 87.98% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $120 | 87.86% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $120 | 87.48% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $120 | 87.34% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $120 | 87.62% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $120 | 88.00% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $120 | 87.79% | 40 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $120 | 87.75% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 58.1% extraordinary 11.6% restricted 0.1% gold 0.1% epic 2.5% rare 6.0% red 7.7% Ancient 1.4% classified 12.4% best hit $2,292 (19.10x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt