--- title: "ASLAN JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "ASLAN JOKER ($143.39) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 10 items with odds, observed 87.56% over 571 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T18:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [ASLAN JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · ASLAN JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan-joker?window=all) Price · $143.39 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $125.47 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.56% · 571 openings, odds method Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 40.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.14% ±6.71 175 openings 7 days · 87.46% ±3.76 565 openings 30 days · 87.56% ±3.74 571 openings since tracking started · 87.56% ±3.74 571 openings 78.0% 85.3% 92.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan-joker?window=24h) | 175 | 85.14% ±6.71 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan-joker?window=7d) | 565 | 87.46% ±3.76 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan-joker) | 571 | 87.56% ±3.74 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan-joker?window=all) | 571 | 87.56% ±3.74 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 601 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $222 | 17.7% | 49 | 60.1 | 0.82× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 10.0% | $175 | 13.9% | 72 | 60.1 | 1.20× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 10.0% | $159 | 12.7% | 58 | 60.1 | 0.97× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $158 | 12.6% | 67 | 60.1 | 1.11× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 10.0% | $152 | 12.1% | 50 | 60.1 | 0.83× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $135 | 10.7% | 77 | 60.1 | 1.28× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 10.0% | $129 | 10.2% | 54 | 60.1 | 0.90× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $109 | 8.7% | 51 | 60.1 | 0.85× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 10.0% | $16.80 | 1.3% | 61 | 60.1 | 1.01× | | [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.32 | 0.0% | 62 | 60.1 | 1.03× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/aslan-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=aslan-joker) [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $144 $152 1.05x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $144 $163 1.13x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $144 $126 0.87x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [BONUS CODE: ASLAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BONUS%20CODE%3A%20ASLAN) $144 $141 0.98x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $144 $175 1.22x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [BONUS CODE: ASLAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BONUS%20CODE%3A%20ASLAN) $144 $126 0.87x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC [R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-well-worn) Hidden $144 $0.29 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [BONUS CODE: ASLAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BONUS%20CODE%3A%20ASLAN) $144 $175 1.22x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $144 $108 0.75x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [BONUS CODE: ASLAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BONUS%20CODE%3A%20ASLAN) $144 $126 0.87x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $143 | 87.50% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $142 | 87.50% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $144 | 87.50% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $144 | 87.50% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $144 | 87.50% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $144 | 87.50% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $146 | 87.50% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $145 | 87.50% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $144 | 87.50% | 10 | | 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $143 | 87.50% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $146 | 87.50% | 10 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $146 | 87.50% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 80.0% classified 10.0% blue 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt