--- title: "ASLAN case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "ASLAN ($10.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 10 items with odds, observed 92.57% over 8,715 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [ASLAN](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · ASLAN A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan?window=all) Price · $10.00 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $8.75 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.57% · 8,715 openings, odds method Variance · 11.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 36 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 99.19% ±18.91 1,180 openings 7 days · 93.97% ±7.58 7,476 openings 30 days · 92.57% ±7.03 8,715 openings since tracking started · 92.57% ±7.03 8,715 openings 79.5% 99.3% 119.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan?window=24h) | 1,180 | 99.19% ±18.9 | +1.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan?window=7d) | 7,476 | 93.97% ±7.58 | +1.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan) | 8,715 | 92.57% ±7.03 | +1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/aslan?window=all) | 8,715 | 92.57% ±7.03 | +1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,729 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 233 | $222 | 10.9% | 50 | 37.5 | 1.33× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 185 | $175 | 10.8% | 44 | 47.1 | 0.93× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 169 | $159 | 10.7% | 57 | 51.5 | 1.11× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $158 | 10.8% | 61 | 52.4 | 1.16× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 161 | $152 | 10.8% | 52 | 54.1 | 0.96× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 145 | $135 | 10.6% | 64 | 60.2 | 1.06× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 137 | $129 | 10.7% | 72 | 63.7 | 1.13× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 116 | $109 | 10.7% | 66 | 75.1 | 0.88× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $16.80 | 10.7% | 474 | 486.2 | 0.97× | | [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-well-worn) | 89.4% | $0.32 | 3.3% | 7,789 | 7801.1 | 1.00× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/aslan`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=aslan) [R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-well-worn) Hidden $10.00 $0.32 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-well-worn) Hidden $10.00 $0.32 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-well-worn) [Kjubosskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Kjubosskins.army) $10.00 $0.32 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-well-worn) Hidden $10.00 $0.32 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-well-worn) [1$azym](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/1%24azym) $10.00 $0.32 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-well-worn) Hidden $10.00 $0.32 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-well-worn) Hidden $10.00 $0.32 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-well-worn) Hidden $10.00 $0.32 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-well-worn) [SoBoL BuK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SoBoL%20BuK) $10.00 $0.32 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-well-worn) Hidden $10.00 $0.32 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $10.00 | 87.50% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $10.00 | 87.06% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $10.00 | 87.54% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $10.00 | 87.41% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $10.00 | 87.63% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $10.00 | 87.71% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $10.00 | 87.63% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $10.00 | 87.71% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $10.00 | 87.09% | 10 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $10.00 | 87.88% | 10 | | 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $10.00 | 87.25% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $10.00 | 87.97% | 10 | | 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $10.00 | 87.05% | 10 | | 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $10.00 | 87.44% | 10 | | 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $10.00 | 87.72% | 10 | | 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $10.00 | 87.73% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $10.00 | 87.89% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.1% classified 5.6% blue 89.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt