---
title: "BANG BANG JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "BANG BANG JOKER ($162.35) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 52 items with odds, observed 98.01% over 290 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T01:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [BANG BANG JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · BANG BANG JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang-joker?window=all)

Price · $162.35

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $142.06 from 52 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.01% · 290 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 12 openings · below min

7 days · 101.51% ±20.75 170 openings

30 days · 98.01% ±15.93 290 openings

since tracking started · 98.01% ±15.93 290 openings

80.0% 161.0% 242.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang-joker?window=24h) | 12 | 163.50% ±78.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang-joker?window=7d) | 170 | 101.51% ±20.8 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang-joker) | 290 | 98.01% ±15.9 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang-joker?window=all) | 290 | 98.01% ±15.9 | +1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 291 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $823 | 29.0% | 20 | 14.5 | 1.37× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $623 | 21.9% | 13 | 14.5 | 0.89× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $370 | 13.0% | 20 | 14.5 | 1.37× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $287 | 10.1% | 9 | 14.5 | 0.62× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $262 | 9.2% | 18 | 14.5 | 1.24× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $146 | 5.1% | 15 | 14.5 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $131 | 1.5% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $126 | 1.5% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $122 | 1.4% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $121 | 4.3% | 13 | 14.5 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $41.79 | 1.5% | 13 | 14.5 | 0.89× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $23.58 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $8.86 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $8.46 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $8.34 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $7.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $7.28 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $7.11 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $7.05 | 0.2% | 13 | 14.5 | 0.89× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $4.93 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $4.73 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $3.98 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $3.92 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $3.00 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $1.29 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $1.29 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $1.21 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $0.96 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $0.74 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $0.66 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $0.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.50 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.36 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $0.17 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.02 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $0.02 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/bang-bang-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $165 $856 5.19x 2026-11-03 01:08 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [✪ ChriSto](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%9C%AA%20ChriSto) $164 $842 5.13x 2026-11-04 14:09 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [ERCÜMENT ÇÖZER](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ERC%C3%9CMENT%20%C3%87%C3%96ZER) $164 $842 5.13x 2026-11-04 13:13 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $164 $842 5.13x 2026-11-04 13:13 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [ERCÜMENT ÇÖZER](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ERC%C3%9CMENT%20%C3%87%C3%96ZER) $164 $842 5.13x 2026-11-04 13:13 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $164 $842 5.13x 2026-11-04 00:26 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $164 $842 5.13x 2026-11-04 00:22 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $164 $842 5.13x 2026-11-03 19:41 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $164 $828 5.06x 2026-11-06 07:24 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Diablo CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Diablo%20CS2.ME) $164 $828 5.06x 2026-11-05 21:20 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=bang-bang-joker)

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) Hidden $162 $1.70 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:03 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) Hidden $162 $1.70 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:03 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $162 $623 3.84x 2026-11-11 23:03 UTC

[MP9 | Shredded weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded) [GoxyzCS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GoxyzCS2.ME) $162 $0.29 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:44 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $162 $146 0.90x 2026-11-11 18:37 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $162 $262 1.61x 2026-11-11 18:37 UTC

[AK-47 | The Empress weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress) Hidden $162 $126 0.78x 2026-11-11 18:37 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [NitramotiCS2.me](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/NitramotiCS2.me) $162 $823 5.07x 2026-11-11 18:37 UTC

[SSG 08 | Blush Pour weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour) Hidden $162 $0.32 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama) Hidden $162 $7.81 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $162 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $162 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $162 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $162 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $164 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $163 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $164 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $164 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $164 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $164 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $165 | 87.50% | 52 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 35.0% sunny 5.0% red 5.0% classified 6.0% Legendary 3.0% #d32ee6 2.5% pink 13.5% Mythical 2.5% uncommon 1.3% violet 1.3% Rare 8.0% blue 9.0% #4b69ff 2.0% milspec 1.0% Uncommon 2.0% blueLight 2.0% #5e98d9 1.0% best hit $856 (5.19x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt