---
title: "BANG BANG case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "BANG BANG ($5.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 52 items with odds, observed 81.62% over 7,953 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [BANG BANG](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · BANG BANG

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang?window=all)

Price · $5.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $4.81 from 52 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.62% · 7,953 openings, odds method

Variance · 18.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 97.85% ±26.68 1,006 openings

7 days · 78.95% ±9.83 6,830 openings

30 days · 81.62% ±9.13 7,953 openings

since tracking started · 81.62% ±9.13 7,953 openings

68.5% 96.8% 125.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang?window=24h) | 1,006 | 97.85% ±26.7 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang?window=7d) | 6,830 | 78.95% ±9.83 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang) | 7,953 | 81.62% ±9.13 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bang-bang?window=all) | 7,953 | 81.62% ±9.13 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,961 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $816 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 2,222 | $616 | 5.8% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,333 | $370 | 5.8% | 8 | 6.0 | 1.34× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 971 | $268 | 5.7% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.85× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 935 | $257 | 5.7% | 2 | 8.5 | 0.23× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 532 | $146 | 5.7% | 13 | 15.0 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 1,471 | $131 | 1.9% | 0 | 5.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,370 | $126 | 1.9% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 1,282 | $122 | 2.0% | 0 | 6.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 442 | $121 | 5.7% | 12 | 18.0 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 155 | $42.22 | 5.7% | 42 | 51.5 | 0.82× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 1,818 | $24.27 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.4 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $8.86 | 2.7% | 0 | 115.5 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $8.49 | 9.1% | 0 | 410.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $8.31 | 9.2% | 0 | 423.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $7.65 | 4.1% | 0 | 204.3 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $7.05 | 5.7% | 0 | 310.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $7.02 | 5.7% | 0 | 309.8 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $7.02 | 10.5% | 474 | 571.4 | 0.83× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $4.88 | 1.6% | 0 | 127.7 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 156 | $4.80 | 0.6% | 0 | 51.1 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 131 | $4.24 | 0.7% | 0 | 60.8 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 121 | $4.01 | 0.7% | 0 | 65.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 287 | $3.23 | 0.2% | 0 | 27.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $1.30 | 0.3% | 0 | 99.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 79 | $1.29 | 0.3% | 0 | 100.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 68 | $1.15 | 0.4% | 0 | 117.6 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-factory-new) | 1 in 459 | $0.97 | 0.0% | 0 | 17.4 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-factory-new) | 1 in 329 | $0.74 | 0.0% | 0 | 24.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 298 | $0.71 | 0.0% | 0 | 26.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-factory-new) | 1 in 258 | $0.63 | 0.1% | 0 | 30.8 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $0.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 43.8 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $0.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 51.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142 | $0.41 | 0.1% | 0 | 56.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 129 | $0.39 | 0.1% | 0 | 61.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $0.17 | 0.1% | 0 | 192.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $0.16 | 0.1% | 0 | 214.9 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 235.7 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 235.7 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 225.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 235.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 235.2 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $0.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 259.6 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 247.7 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $0.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 247.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 252.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $0.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 252.2 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-factory-new) | 1 in 199 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 40.0 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 87.4 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 344.7 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.02 | 0.0% | 0 | 606.5 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.02 | 0.0% | 0 | 608.1 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/bang-bang`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $5.50 $629 114.4x 2026-11-04 12:58 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [Deadpanzzz\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Deadpanzzz_) $5.50 $616 112.1x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) [MasterBaiter](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/MasterBaiter) $5.50 $370 67.29x 2026-11-11 00:28 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) [Jaś](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Ja%C5%9B) $5.50 $370 67.29x 2026-11-10 10:52 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $5.50 $370 67.29x 2026-11-09 21:56 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) [MakesoS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/MakesoS) $5.50 $370 67.29x 2026-11-09 18:08 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) [Nilatarion](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Nilatarion) $5.50 $363 66.04x 2026-11-04 21:13 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $5.50 $360 65.44x 2026-11-04 00:17 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $5.50 $360 65.44x 2026-11-03 19:23 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $5.50 $348 63.20x 2026-11-09 13:45 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=bang-bang)

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama) Hidden $5.50 $7.87 1.43x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[Tec-9 | Citric Acid weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid) Hidden $5.50 $0.03 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[MP7 | Abyssal Apparition weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition) Hidden $5.50 $7.76 1.41x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[SSG 08 | Blush Pour weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour) [Deadpanzzz\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Deadpanzzz_) $5.50 $0.18 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration) Hidden $5.50 $6.37 1.16x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration) Hidden $5.50 $6.37 1.16x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) Hidden $5.50 $7.02 1.28x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration) [Deadpanzzz\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Deadpanzzz_) $5.50 $6.37 1.16x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $5.50 $268 48.64x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Rose Hex weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex) Hidden $5.50 $0.19 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $5.50 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $5.50 | 87.96% | 52 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $5.50 | 87.93% | 52 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $5.50 | 88.05% | 52 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $5.50 | 87.94% | 52 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $5.50 | 88.06% | 52 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $5.50 | 87.87% | 52 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $5.50 | 88.06% | 52 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $5.50 | 87.94% | 52 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $5.50 | 87.87% | 52 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $5.50 | 87.94% | 52 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $5.50 | 87.33% | 52 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $5.50 | 87.81% | 52 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $5.50 | 87.40% | 52 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $5.50 | 88.05% | 52 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $5.50 | 88.10% | 52 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $5.50 | 87.33% | 52 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $5.50 | 87.98% | 52 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $5.50 | 87.89% | 52 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.9% sunny 0.1% red 0.6% classified 7.0% Legendary 2.9% #d32ee6 5.2% pink 18.3% Mythical 1.6% uncommon 1.3% violet 1.5% Rare 7.6% blue 22.7% #4b69ff 6.2% milspec 3.0% Uncommon 4.8% blueLight 8.7% #5e98d9 7.6% best hit $629 (114.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt