---
title: "BANK HEIST case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "BANK HEIST ($11.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 66 items with odds, observed 82.21% over 6,063 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bank-heist
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [BANK HEIST](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bank-heist)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · BANK HEIST

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bank-heist?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bank-heist?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bank-heist) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bank-heist?window=all)

Price · $11.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $9.63 from 66 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.21% · 6,063 openings, odds method

Variance · 11.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.93% ±21.37 987 openings

7 days · 82.42% ±8.62 5,087 openings

30 days · 82.21% ±8.01 6,063 openings

since tracking started · 82.21% ±8.01 6,063 openings

65.0% 87.0% 109.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bank-heist?window=24h) | 987 | 86.93% ±21.4 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bank-heist?window=7d) | 5,087 | 82.42% ±8.62 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bank-heist) | 6,063 | 82.21% ±8.01 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bank-heist?window=all) | 6,063 | 82.21% ±8.01 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 66 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,071 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $6,120 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $759 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,778 | $261 | 1.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,882 | $253 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) | 1 in 3,704 | $196 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,695 | $159 | 1.0% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $156 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,538 | $143 | 1.0% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.27× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,167 | $137 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,030 | $137 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 3,704 | $128 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,564 | $126 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,282 | $119 | 1.0% | 1 | 4.7 | 0.21× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,125 | $90.51 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 11,111 | $89.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $84.62 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,564 | $83.95 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 2,632 | $83.48 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,326 | $77.91 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $66.08 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $65.44 | 0.3% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 4,348 | $61.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,695 | $60.50 | 0.4% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,099 | $47.11 | 0.4% | 0 | 5.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 741 | $44.40 | 0.6% | 0 | 8.2 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-factory-new) | 1 in 2,941 | $42.87 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $40.23 | 12.2% | 0 | 177.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 174 | $38.48 | 2.3% | 0 | 34.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $36.22 | 8.9% | 0 | 143.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-minimal-wear) | 1 in 190 | $26.61 | 1.5% | 0 | 32.0 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-factory-new) | 1 in 256 | $25.87 | 1.1% | 0 | 23.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $25.62 | 2.3% | 0 | 52.8 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $24.24 | 1.9% | 0 | 46.8 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 126 | $23.85 | 2.0% | 0 | 48.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $23.20 | 3.9% | 0 | 99.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 118 | $23.13 | 2.0% | 0 | 51.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $20.09 | 1.9% | 0 | 56.0 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 1 in 157 | $19.91 | 1.3% | 0 | 38.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $18.57 | 3.2% | 0 | 100.4 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 1 in 441 | $17.82 | 0.4% | 0 | 13.8 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $16.83 | 2.5% | 0 | 88.0 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109 | $16.55 | 1.6% | 0 | 55.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $15.43 | 4.0% | 0 | 151.9 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $14.84 | 2.8% | 0 | 111.2 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $14.51 | 4.7% | 0 | 189.4 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $14.49 | 2.9% | 0 | 116.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $13.65 | 2.9% | 0 | 126.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $12.75 | 3.2% | 0 | 144.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $12.55 | 3.2% | 0 | 149.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-factory-new) | 1 in 321 | $12.51 | 0.4% | 0 | 18.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $7.65 | 0.7% | 0 | 50.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 180 | $5.91 | 0.3% | 0 | 33.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) | 1 in 210 | $5.88 | 0.3% | 0 | 29.0 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $5.01 | 3.1% | 0 | 365.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $4.88 | 0.9% | 0 | 104.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $4.22 | 0.9% | 0 | 127.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $4.16 | 0.9% | 0 | 130.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $3.22 | 0.4% | 0 | 67.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $2.78 | 0.5% | 0 | 97.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $1.87 | 0.5% | 0 | 143.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $1.67 | 0.6% | 0 | 198.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.56 | 0.5% | 0 | 185.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $1.33 | 0.5% | 0 | 231.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $1.19 | 0.6% | 0 | 318.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-factory-new) | 14.8% | $0.83 | 1.3% | 916 | 896.0 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) | 15.8% | $0.71 | 1.2% | 962 | 958.5 | 1.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/bank-heist`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=bank-heist)

[M4A1-S | Glitched Paint weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint) Hidden $11.00 $1.91 0.17x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation) [???????????? KAMIEŃ](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20KAMIE%C5%83) $11.00 $2.13 0.19x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC

[Tec-9 | Remote Control weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control) Hidden $11.00 $6.28 0.57x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation) Hidden $11.00 $2.13 0.19x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[FAMAS | Djinn weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn) Hidden $11.00 $15.45 1.40x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) [Pasza Nigeps SKINS.ARMY](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Pasza%20Nigeps%20SKINS.ARMY) $11.00 $0.71 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[USP-S | Monster Mashup weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup) Hidden $11.00 $30.88 2.81x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain) [lupt0n](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/lupt0n) $11.00 $5.21 0.47x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation) Hidden $11.00 $2.13 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain) [Mlotek skins.army CS2.ME SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Mlotek%20skins.army%20CS2.ME%20SKINS) $11.00 $5.21 0.47x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $11.00 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $11.00 | 87.33% | 66 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $11.00 | 87.76% | 66 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $11.00 | 87.28% | 66 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $11.00 | 87.80% | 66 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $11.00 | 87.55% | 66 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $11.00 | 87.67% | 66 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $11.00 | 87.73% | 66 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $11.00 | 87.35% | 66 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $11.00 | 87.73% | 66 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $11.00 | 87.64% | 66 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $11.00 | 87.68% | 66 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $11.00 | 87.64% | 66 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $11.00 | 87.72% | 66 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $11.00 | 87.70% | 66 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $11.00 | 87.54% | 66 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $11.00 | 87.70% | 66 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $11.00 | 87.64% | 66 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $11.00 | 87.21% | 66 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $11.00 | 87.64% | 66 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% gold 0.0% covert 0.7% red 0.1% Ancient 3.0% epic 0.1% Covert 0.1% classified 23.2% pink 17.5% Legendary 0.8% #d32ee6 2.3% Mythical 1.4% violet 17.1% restricted 3.3% milspec 14.8% Rare 15.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt