--- title: "BERKAY JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "BERKAY JOKER ($139.99) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 9 items with odds, observed 93.31% over 192 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T21:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [BERKAY JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · BERKAY JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay-joker?window=all) Price · $139.99 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $122.49 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.31% · 192 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 58.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 21 openings · below min 7 days · 91.38% ±12.89 171 openings 30 days · 93.31% ±12.15 192 openings since tracking started · 93.31% ±12.15 192 openings 64.5% 102.3% 140.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay-joker?window=24h) | 21 | 102.28% ±37.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay-joker?window=7d) | 171 | 91.38% ±12.9 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay-joker) | 192 | 93.31% ±12.2 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay-joker?window=all) | 192 | 93.31% ±12.2 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 220 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $321 | 21.8% | 0 | 18.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $280 | 19.1% | 0 | 18.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $274 | 18.6% | 0 | 18.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $217 | 14.7% | 0 | 18.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $204 | 13.9% | 0 | 18.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $97.58 | 6.6% | 0 | 18.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 16.7% | $38.37 | 5.2% | 37 | 36.7 | 1.01× | | [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) | 16.7% | $0.24 | 0.0% | 32 | 36.7 | 0.87× | | [M249 \| Sage Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-sage-camo-field-tested) | 16.7% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 31 | 36.7 | 0.85× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/berkay-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=berkay-joker) [★ Hand Wraps | Leather gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather) [code VESU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/code%20VESU) $140 $300 2.15x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation) Hidden $140 $239 1.71x 2026-11-11 14:39 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation) Hidden $140 $239 1.71x 2026-11-11 14:39 UTC [M249 | Sage Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-sage-camo-field-tested) [sztamaxyz](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/sztamaxyz) $140 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:39 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation) [\_quot;S\_quot; KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/_quot%3BS_quot%3B%20KING) $140 $239 1.71x 2026-11-11 14:39 UTC [USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) Hidden $140 $0.24 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC [USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) Hidden $140 $0.24 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC [★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) Hidden $140 $38.37 0.27x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC [M249 | Sage Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-sage-camo-field-tested) [kuba](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kuba) $140 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation) Hidden $140 $239 1.71x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $140 | 87.50% | 9 | | 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $141 | 87.50% | 9 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $142 | 87.50% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $142 | 87.50% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $140 | 87.50% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $142 | 87.50% | 9 | | 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $142 | 87.50% | 9 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $142 | 87.50% | 9 | | 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $142 | 87.50% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $141 | 87.50% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $141 | 87.50% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $141 | 87.50% | 9 | | 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $141 | 87.50% | 9 | | 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $141 | 87.50% | 9 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $141 | 87.50% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 66.7% Rare 16.7% #b0c3d9 16.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt