--- title: "BERKAY case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "BERKAY ($2.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.01% from 9 items with odds, observed 87.25% over 37K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay rendered: 2026-11-11T15:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [BERKAY](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · BERKAY A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay?window=all) Price · $2.00 Advertised RTP · 87.01% · EV $1.74 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.25% · 37K openings, odds method Variance · 30.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 30 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 81.44% ±18.58 3,481 openings 7 days · 87.42% ±6.16 31.7K openings 30 days · 87.25% ±5.70 37K openings since tracking started · 87.25% ±5.70 37K openings 62.0% 81.3% 100.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay?window=24h) | 3,481 | 81.44% ±18.6 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay?window=7d) | 31.7K | 87.42% ±6.16 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay) | 37K | 87.25% ±5.70 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/berkay?window=all) | 37K | 87.25% ±5.70 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather-well-worn) | 1 in 16,667 | $306 | 1.1% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,564 | $277 | 6.2% | 0 | 14.4 | 0.00× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-well-worn) | 1 in 7,143 | $274 | 2.2% | 0 | 5.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-well-worn) | 1 in 16,667 | $217 | 0.7% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,562 | $203 | 7.5% | 0 | 23.7 | 0.00× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,471 | $97.80 | 3.8% | 0 | 25.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $37.56 | 67.3% | 1,175 | 1155.1 | 1.02× | | [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) | 79.6% | $0.24 | 11.0% | 28,764 | 29483.1 | 0.98× | | [M249 \| Sage Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-sage-camo-field-tested) | 17.1% | $0.02 | 0.2% | 7,024 | 6322.8 | 1.11× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/berkay`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Hand Wraps | Leather gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather) Hidden $2.00 $294 147.2x 2026-11-05 16:04 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Leather gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather) Hidden $2.00 $294 147.2x 2026-11-05 15:57 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Leather gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather) Hidden $2.00 $293 146.4x 2026-11-05 18:47 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Leather gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather) Hidden $2.00 $293 146.4x 2026-11-05 16:59 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Leather gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather) Hidden $2.00 $289 144.3x 2026-11-09 22:09 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Leather gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather) Hidden $2.00 $285 142.7x 2026-11-10 23:51 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Leather gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather) Hidden $2.00 $284 141.9x 2026-11-06 19:06 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Leather gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather) [damianxc21](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/damianxc21) $2.00 $284 141.9x 2026-11-06 18:52 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Leather gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather) [\`zel](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%60zel) $2.00 $284 141.9x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Leather gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather) [Kiyō binbō](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Kiy%C5%8D%20binb%C5%8D) $2.00 $284 141.9x 2026-11-06 17:13 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=berkay) [USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.00 $0.24 0.12x 2026-11-11 15:43 UTC [USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.00 $0.24 0.12x 2026-11-11 15:43 UTC [USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.00 $0.24 0.12x 2026-11-11 15:43 UTC [M249 | Sage Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-sage-camo-field-tested) [Burczvk](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Burczvk) $2.00 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:43 UTC [USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.00 $0.24 0.12x 2026-11-11 15:43 UTC [USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.00 $0.24 0.12x 2026-11-11 15:43 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Boom! gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom) Hidden $2.00 $107 53.72x 2026-11-11 15:43 UTC [USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) [Burczvk](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Burczvk) $2.00 $0.24 0.12x 2026-11-11 15:43 UTC [USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.00 $0.24 0.12x 2026-11-11 15:42 UTC [USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.00 $0.24 0.12x 2026-11-11 15:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $2.00 | 87.01% | 9 | | 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $2.00 | 87.05% | 9 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $2.00 | 87.08% | 9 | | 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $2.00 | 86.62% | 9 | | 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $2.00 | 87.02% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $2.00 | 86.62% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $2.00 | 87.02% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $2.00 | 87.09% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.00 | 87.04% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $2.00 | 87.09% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $2.00 | 87.03% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $2.00 | 87.08% | 9 | | 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $2.00 | 87.03% | 9 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $2.00 | 87.04% | 9 | | 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $2.00 | 87.03% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.00 | 87.04% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.00 | 87.06% | 9 | | 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $2.00 | 87.22% | 9 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.00 | 87.26% | 9 | | 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.00 | 87.04% | 9 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $2.00 | 87.26% | 9 | | 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $2.00 | 87.35% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $2.00 | 87.02% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 3.3% Rare 79.6% #b0c3d9 17.1% best hit $294 (147.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.01 on average: an expected loss of $12.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt