--- title: "BIKE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "BIKE JOKER ($289.57) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 24 items with odds, observed 90.44% over 374 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T23:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [BIKE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · BIKE JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike-joker?window=all) Price · $289.57 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $253.37 from 24 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.44% · 374 openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 66 openings · below min 7 days · 88.12% ±15.99 347 openings 30 days · 90.44% ±15.40 374 openings since tracking started · 90.44% ±15.40 374 openings 63.0% 100.5% 138.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike-joker?window=24h) | 66 | 100.53% ±36.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike-joker?window=7d) | 347 | 88.12% ±16.0 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike-joker) | 374 | 90.44% ±15.4 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike-joker?window=all) | 374 | 90.44% ±15.4 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 383 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $1,870 | 33.5% | 21 | 17.4 | 1.21× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $1,221 | 21.9% | 16 | 17.4 | 0.92× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $641 | 5.7% | 0 | 8.7 | 0.00× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $382 | 6.9% | 12 | 17.4 | 0.69× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $379 | 6.8% | 16 | 17.4 | 0.92× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $337 | 3.0% | 0 | 8.7 | 0.00× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $216 | 3.9% | 27 | 17.4 | 1.55× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $186 | 3.3% | 14 | 17.4 | 0.80× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $163 | 1.5% | 0 | 8.7 | 0.00× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $137 | 2.5% | 21 | 17.4 | 1.21× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $130 | 1.2% | 0 | 8.7 | 0.00× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $96.97 | 1.7% | 11 | 17.4 | 0.63× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $86.20 | 1.5% | 13 | 17.4 | 0.75× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $74.25 | 1.3% | 15 | 17.4 | 0.86× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $69.31 | 1.2% | 18 | 17.4 | 1.03× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $57.45 | 1.0% | 14 | 17.4 | 0.80× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $50.86 | 0.9% | 23 | 17.4 | 1.32× | | [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $37.42 | 0.7% | 17 | 17.4 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $15.79 | 0.3% | 14 | 17.4 | 0.80× | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $13.56 | 0.2% | 19 | 17.4 | 1.09× | | [Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $12.24 | 0.2% | 19 | 17.4 | 1.09× | | [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $12.24 | 0.2% | 24 | 17.4 | 1.38× | | [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $10.33 | 0.2% | 18 | 17.4 | 1.03× | | [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $10.16 | 0.2% | 20 | 17.4 | 1.15× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/bike-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) [RUDSONCS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/RUDSONCS) $294 $1,910 6.50x 2026-11-10 15:33 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) Hidden $294 $1,910 6.50x 2026-11-10 13:25 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) Hidden $295 $1,910 6.47x 2026-11-10 01:34 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) [XAK1](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XAK1) $294 $1,910 6.49x 2026-11-09 13:47 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) Hidden $296 $1,910 6.46x 2026-11-08 22:10 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) Hidden $296 $1,910 6.46x 2026-11-08 19:48 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) [17curses](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/17curses) $296 $1,910 6.46x 2026-11-08 19:27 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) Hidden $296 $1,910 6.46x 2026-11-08 19:26 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) Hidden $296 $1,910 6.46x 2026-11-06 22:32 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) Hidden $296 $1,910 6.46x 2026-11-06 22:32 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=bike-joker) [★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-battle-scarred) Hidden $290 $69.31 0.24x 2026-11-11 21:30 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-battle-scarred) Hidden $290 $69.31 0.24x 2026-11-11 21:30 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) Hidden $290 $13.56 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:30 UTC [XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $290 $12.24 0.04x 2026-11-11 21:30 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-field-tested) Hidden $290 $216 0.75x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid) [Malutki Kamilek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Malutki%20Kamilek) $290 $147 0.51x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-minimal-wear) Hidden $290 $379 1.31x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) Hidden $290 $382 1.32x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-well-worn) Hidden $290 $186 0.64x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-minimal-wear) [BONUS CODE: ASLAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BONUS%20CODE%3A%20ASLAN) $290 $137 0.47x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $290 | 87.50% | 24 | | 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $291 | 87.50% | 24 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $294 | 87.50% | 24 | | 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $295 | 87.50% | 24 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $294 | 87.50% | 24 | | 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $296 | 87.50% | 24 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $296 | 87.50% | 24 | | 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $296 | 87.50% | 24 | | 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $295 | 87.50% | 24 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $295 | 87.50% | 24 | | 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $294 | 87.50% | 24 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $293 | 87.50% | 24 | | 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $296 | 87.50% | 24 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 56.8% sunny 6.8% covert 4.5% Ancient 4.5% #d32ee6 4.5% violet 4.5% blue 18.2% best hit $1,910 (6.50x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt