---
title: "BIKE case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "BIKE ($54.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 24 items with odds, observed 87.52% over 5,978 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:33Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [BIKE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · BIKE

A case on Casehug (BATTLE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike?window=all)

Price · $54.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $47.25 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.52% · 5,978 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 61.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.88% ±10.59 590 openings

7 days · 87.96% ±3.81 4,534 openings

30 days · 87.52% ±3.30 5,978 openings

since tracking started · 87.52% ±3.30 5,978 openings

83.5% 95.3% 107.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike?window=24h) | 590 | 95.88% ±10.6 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike?window=7d) | 4,534 | 87.96% ±3.81 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike) | 5,978 | 87.52% ±3.30 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bike?window=all) | 5,978 | 87.52% ±3.30 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,020 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,880 | 2.0% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-well-worn) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,222 | 1.8% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $667 | 0.6% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 455 | $383 | 1.8% | 11 | 13.2 | 0.83× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 435 | $379 | 1.8% | 10 | 13.8 | 0.72× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-field-tested) | 1 in 588 | $335 | 1.2% | 0 | 10.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $216 | 1.8% | 17 | 24.1 | 0.71× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $196 | 3.1% | 0 | 44.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $179 | 7.4% | 92 | 116.8 | 0.79× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $139 | 7.4% | 139 | 151.1 | 0.92× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 68 | $138 | 4.3% | 0 | 89.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $89.09 | 11.9% | 339 | 381.1 | 0.89× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $88.13 | 11.9% | 355 | 385.3 | 0.92× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $74.25 | 6.0% | 307 | 228.8 | 1.34× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $69.25 | 6.0% | 282 | 245.0 | 1.15× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $57.05 | 6.0% | 311 | 298.0 | 1.04× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $55.33 | 6.0% | 316 | 307.0 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $37.36 | 4.5% | 362 | 346.2 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $16.81 | 2.9% | 471 | 490.6 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $13.56 | 2.6% | 540 | 535.2 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $12.26 | 2.4% | 561 | 556.9 | 1.01× |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $12.24 | 2.4% | 511 | 557.5 | 0.92× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $10.27 | 2.2% | 614 | 597.8 | 1.03× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) | 10.3% | $9.85 | 2.1% | 612 | 618.3 | 0.99× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/bike`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) [rwydenvum](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/rwydenvum) $54.00 $1,910 35.38x 2026-11-09 20:24 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) Hidden $54.00 $1,910 35.38x 2026-11-06 21:21 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) Hidden $54.00 $1,910 35.38x 2026-11-03 20:36 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-well-worn) [xroslydia](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/xroslydia) $54.00 $1,222 22.63x 2026-11-10 04:50 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-well-worn) [xroslydia](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/xroslydia) $54.00 $1,222 22.62x 2026-11-10 14:33 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-well-worn) Hidden $54.00 $1,193 22.10x 2026-11-05 16:26 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=bike)

[StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) [Vaderr](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Vaderr) $54.00 $13.56 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[AK-47 | Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) [Domision](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Domision) $54.00 $37.36 0.69x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) [xroslydia](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/xroslydia) $54.00 $12.24 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Overtake (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-well-worn) [xroslydia](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/xroslydia) $54.00 $55.33 1.02x 2026-11-11 12:10 UTC

[Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) [xroslydia](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/xroslydia) $54.00 $10.27 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:05 UTC

[Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) [xroslydia](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/xroslydia) $54.00 $10.27 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:04 UTC

[XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) [xroslydia](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/xroslydia) $54.00 $12.24 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) Hidden $54.00 $13.56 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) Hidden $54.00 $16.81 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) [rausen z tym](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/rausen%20z%20tym) $54.00 $13.56 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:04 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $54.00 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $54.00 | 87.57% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $54.00 | 87.66% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $54.00 | 87.70% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $54.00 | 87.18% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $54.00 | 87.21% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $54.00 | 87.62% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $54.00 | 87.46% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $54.00 | 87.56% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $54.00 | 87.46% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $54.00 | 87.68% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $54.00 | 87.71% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $54.00 | 87.38% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $54.00 | 87.71% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $54.00 | 87.38% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $54.00 | 87.34% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $54.00 | 87.56% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $54.00 | 87.50% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 27.0% sunny 6.6% covert 5.0% Ancient 5.8% #d32ee6 8.2% violet 8.9% blue 38.7% best hit $1,910 (35.38x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt