---
title: "BLAZE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "BLAZE JOKER ($331.74) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 50 items with odds, observed 91.82% over 545 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [BLAZE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · BLAZE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze-joker?window=all)

Price · $331.74

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $290.27 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.82% · 545 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.05% ±32.54 115 openings

7 days · 89.77% ±15.45 514 openings

30 days · 91.82% ±15.00 545 openings

since tracking started · 91.82% ±15.00 545 openings

52.0% 85.0% 118.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze-joker?window=24h) | 115 | 85.05% ±32.5 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze-joker?window=7d) | 514 | 89.77% ±15.4 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze-joker) | 545 | 91.82% ±15.0 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze-joker?window=all) | 545 | 91.82% ±15.0 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 590 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 25 | $2,815 | 38.8% | 26 | 23.6 | 1.10× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 25 | $1,177 | 16.2% | 24 | 23.6 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $797 | 11.0% | 23 | 23.6 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $641 | 8.8% | 16 | 23.6 | 0.68× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 25 | $520 | 7.2% | 23 | 23.6 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $277 | 1.0% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $250 | 3.4% | 17 | 23.6 | 0.72× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $240 | 3.3% | 30 | 23.6 | 1.27× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $213 | 0.7% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $210 | 0.7% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $175 | 0.6% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $88.56 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $87.98 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $83.83 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $78.31 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $76.39 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $73.30 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $68.68 | 0.9% | 24 | 23.6 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $60.57 | 0.3% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $59.09 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $58.63 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $55.99 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $55.36 | 0.3% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $55.25 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $54.83 | 0.3% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $53.93 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $48.47 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $45.39 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $43.36 | 0.2% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $42.24 | 0.2% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $42.11 | 0.2% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $39.28 | 0.2% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $37.88 | 0.5% | 19 | 23.6 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $36.90 | 0.2% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $35.86 | 0.2% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $35.60 | 0.2% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $34.38 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $33.72 | 0.2% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $31.56 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $31.38 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $29.59 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $21.44 | 0.3% | 28 | 23.6 | 1.19× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $17.77 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $13.22 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $12.26 | 0.2% | 33 | 23.6 | 1.40× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $10.52 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $10.27 | 0.1% | 21 | 23.6 | 0.89× |
| [G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $9.13 | 0.1% | 30 | 23.6 | 1.27× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $7.54 | 0.1% | 22 | 23.6 | 0.93× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $7.28 | 0.1% | 31 | 23.6 | 1.31× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/blaze-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $337 $2,891 8.57x 2026-11-09 03:10 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $339 $2,868 8.47x 2026-11-05 13:11 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $339 $2,868 8.47x 2026-11-05 11:50 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $339 $2,868 8.47x 2026-11-05 11:49 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [XAK1](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XAK1) $339 $2,868 8.47x 2026-11-05 11:49 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $339 $2,868 8.47x 2026-11-04 12:23 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $338 $2,868 8.49x 2026-11-05 22:33 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [MÓJKODWACKIJA](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/M%C3%93JKODWACKIJA) $337 $2,864 8.51x 2026-11-08 20:04 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $336 $2,864 8.52x 2026-11-07 13:26 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $336 $2,864 8.52x 2026-11-06 18:09 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=blaze-joker)

[AK-47 | Nightwish weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish) Hidden $335 $77.39 0.23x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[M4A4 | Temukau weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau) Hidden $335 $35.02 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) Hidden $335 $7.05 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish) [BONUS CODE: ASLAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BONUS%20CODE%3A%20ASLAN) $335 $77.39 0.23x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) Hidden $335 $21.42 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) Hidden $335 $10.27 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) Hidden $335 $7.54 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream) [BONUS CODE: ASLAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BONUS%20CODE%3A%20ASLAN) $335 $43.48 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream) Hidden $335 $43.48 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[M4A4 | Temukau weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau) Hidden $335 $35.02 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $332 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $335 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $332 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $333 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $334 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $337 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $337 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $337 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $336 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $338 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $339 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $338 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $339 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $339 | 87.50% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 4.0% covert 21.3% rare 7.0% classified 8.0% mil spec 4.0% epic 4.0% red 14.7% Ancient 7.7% Covert 1.3% Legendary 4.0% pink 8.0% blue 16.0% best hit $2,891 (8.57x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt