---
title: "BLAZE case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "BLAZE ($35.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 50 items with odds, observed 89.64% over 8,434 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [BLAZE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · BLAZE

A case on Casehug (PREMIUM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze?window=all)

Price · $35.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $30.62 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.64% · 8,434 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.45% ±10.28 1,112 openings

7 days · 88.92% ±3.84 6,825 openings

30 days · 89.64% ±3.49 8,434 openings

since tracking started · 89.64% ±3.49 8,434 openings

80.5% 91.5% 102.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze?window=24h) | 1,112 | 91.45% ±10.3 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze?window=7d) | 6,825 | 88.92% ±3.84 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze) | 8,434 | 89.64% ±3.49 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blaze?window=all) | 8,434 | 89.64% ±3.49 | +1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,455 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,858 | 1.9% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,184 | 1.5% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.48× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $797 | 1.6% | 11 | 5.1 | 2.17× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $662 | 1.5% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,111 | $519 | 1.5% | 8 | 7.6 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $277 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 526 | $250 | 1.5% | 13 | 16.1 | 0.81× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 526 | $242 | 1.5% | 12 | 16.1 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $212 | 0.4% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 1,667 | $210 | 0.4% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,250 | $175 | 0.5% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $88.63 | 8.4% | 0 | 245.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $87.71 | 6.7% | 0 | 197.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 256 | $83.95 | 1.1% | 0 | 33.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $75.44 | 1.5% | 0 | 50.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 161 | $74.10 | 1.5% | 0 | 52.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 149 | $71.37 | 1.6% | 0 | 56.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $67.44 | 5.8% | 209 | 222.4 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 128 | $59.09 | 1.5% | 0 | 65.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 128 | $58.63 | 1.5% | 0 | 65.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $57.30 | 1.8% | 0 | 80.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $55.66 | 1.6% | 0 | 73.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $55.23 | 1.6% | 0 | 75.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $54.85 | 1.6% | 0 | 76.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $53.63 | 1.9% | 0 | 92.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $50.97 | 1.4% | 0 | 72.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 91 | $48.44 | 1.7% | 0 | 93.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 103 | $46.69 | 1.5% | 0 | 82.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 161 | $45.37 | 0.9% | 0 | 52.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $43.39 | 1.6% | 0 | 95.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $40.36 | 1.7% | 0 | 109.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $37.46 | 4.8% | 404 | 331.4 | 1.22× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $37.36 | 1.5% | 0 | 104.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $36.15 | 1.5% | 0 | 110.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 101 | $35.86 | 1.2% | 0 | 83.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $35.86 | 1.6% | 0 | 112.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) | 1 in 74 | $35.60 | 1.6% | 0 | 115.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $33.08 | 1.8% | 0 | 144.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $33.06 | 2.1% | 0 | 160.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $31.49 | 1.6% | 0 | 127.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $29.59 | 1.6% | 0 | 139.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $21.42 | 4.5% | 553 | 542.0 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $17.60 | 1.0% | 0 | 147.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $13.14 | 1.1% | 0 | 222.4 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $12.26 | 3.2% | 668 | 677.2 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $10.77 | 1.2% | 0 | 293.4 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $10.27 | 2.9% | 670 | 727.1 | 0.92× |
| [G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $9.13 | 2.7% | 678 | 762.6 | 0.89× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $7.54 | 2.4% | 829 | 822.7 | 1.01× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 10.2% | $7.05 | 2.3% | 838 | 862.4 | 0.97× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/blaze`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $35.00 $2,826 80.75x 2026-11-09 22:19 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $35.00 $1,228 35.08x 2026-11-08 13:18 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $35.00 $1,223 34.94x 2026-11-06 00:00 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $35.00 $1,220 34.86x 2026-11-09 21:34 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $35.00 $1,177 33.62x 2026-11-10 17:55 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $35.00 $1,177 33.62x 2026-11-10 17:42 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $35.00 $819 23.40x 2026-11-03 16:04 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [XjajkuX\_skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XjajkuX_skins.army) $35.00 $819 23.40x 2026-11-03 11:37 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $35.00 $812 23.20x 2026-11-04 02:51 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $35.00 $812 23.20x 2026-11-04 01:19 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=blaze)

[AWP | Chrome Cannon weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon) Hidden $35.00 $33.54 0.96x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[AWP | Chrome Cannon weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon) [WeeFX](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/WeeFX) $35.00 $33.54 0.96x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) Hidden $35.00 $12.26 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) [WeeFX](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/WeeFX) $35.00 $12.26 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Head Shot weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot) Hidden $35.00 $35.11 1.00x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) [WeeFX](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/WeeFX) $35.00 $7.05 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[AWP | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream) Hidden $35.00 $52.92 1.51x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) [WeeFX](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/WeeFX) $35.00 $12.26 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) Hidden $35.00 $10.27 0.29x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream) [WeeFX](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/WeeFX) $35.00 $43.17 1.23x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $35.00 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $35.00 | 87.55% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $35.00 | 87.71% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $35.00 | 87.29% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $35.00 | 88.02% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $35.00 | 87.89% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $35.00 | 87.98% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $35.00 | 86.64% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $35.00 | 88.01% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $35.00 | 87.57% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $35.00 | 87.16% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $35.00 | 87.53% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $35.00 | 86.95% | 50 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $35.00 | 87.63% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 7.8% rare 4.0% classified 4.0% mil spec 0.2% epic 0.2% red 15.8% Ancient 7.2% Covert 1.0% Legendary 6.4% pink 18.0% blue 35.4% best hit $2,826 (80.75x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt