---
title: "BLOODY MARY JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "BLOODY MARY JOKER ($350.01) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 47 items with odds, observed 86.72% over 3,526 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T14:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [BLOODY MARY JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · BLOODY MARY JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary-joker?window=all)

Price · $350.01

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $306.26 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.72% · 3,526 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 83.77% ±7.41 2,300 openings

30 days · 86.72% ±5.98 3,526 openings

since tracking started · 86.72% ±5.98 3,526 openings

75.5% 84.5% 93.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary-joker?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary-joker?window=7d) | 2,300 | 83.77% ±7.41 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary-joker) | 3,526 | 86.72% ±5.98 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary-joker?window=all) | 3,526 | 86.72% ±5.98 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,536 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 30 | $2,826 | 30.8% | 121 | 117.9 | 1.03× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 30 | $1,899 | 20.7% | 116 | 117.9 | 0.98× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 30 | $1,222 | 13.3% | 111 | 117.9 | 0.94× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 30 | $880 | 9.6% | 104 | 117.9 | 0.88× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 30 | $651 | 7.1% | 130 | 117.9 | 1.10× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $592 | 6.4% | 114 | 117.9 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $331 | 0.9% | 0 | 29.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $279 | 0.8% | 0 | 29.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $244 | 0.7% | 0 | 29.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $223 | 0.6% | 0 | 29.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 30 | $155 | 1.7% | 123 | 117.9 | 1.04× |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $114 | 0.6% | 0 | 58.9 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $99.69 | 0.5% | 0 | 58.9 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $85.05 | 0.9% | 125 | 117.9 | 1.06× |
| [Galil AR \| Shattered (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $65.88 | 0.7% | 122 | 117.9 | 1.04× |
| [UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $64.75 | 0.7% | 129 | 117.9 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $58.68 | 0.6% | 105 | 117.9 | 0.89× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $46.56 | 0.5% | 127 | 117.9 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $45.26 | 0.1% | 0 | 29.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $44.46 | 0.2% | 0 | 39.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $42.21 | 0.1% | 0 | 29.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $41.84 | 0.1% | 0 | 29.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) | 1 in 90 | $41.75 | 0.2% | 0 | 39.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $41.11 | 0.1% | 0 | 29.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $37.76 | 0.1% | 0 | 39.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $34.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 29.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $26.83 | 0.1% | 0 | 29.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $24.92 | 0.1% | 0 | 29.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $24.08 | 0.1% | 0 | 29.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $23.41 | 0.1% | 0 | 29.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $23.19 | 0.1% | 0 | 29.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $23.10 | 0.1% | 0 | 29.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $23.08 | 0.1% | 0 | 29.5 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $22.92 | 0.2% | 116 | 117.9 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $18.21 | 0.2% | 125 | 117.9 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $14.21 | 0.2% | 111 | 117.9 | 0.94× |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $12.24 | 0.1% | 112 | 117.9 | 0.95× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $12.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 39.3 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $10.45 | 0.1% | 106 | 117.9 | 0.90× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $10.27 | 0.0% | 0 | 39.3 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $8.57 | 0.1% | 117 | 117.9 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Lucas (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas-foil) | 1 in 30 | $7.96 | 0.1% | 126 | 117.9 | 1.07× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $7.93 | 0.0% | 0 | 39.3 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $7.27 | 0.1% | 122 | 117.9 | 1.03× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $7.05 | 0.1% | 121 | 117.9 | 1.03× |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $6.89 | 0.1% | 127 | 117.9 | 1.08× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $5.11 | 0.1% | 122 | 117.9 | 1.03× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/bloody-mary-joker`, 12 Nov, 08:52 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $356 $2,917 8.20x 2026-11-03 15:50 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $356 $2,917 8.20x 2026-11-03 15:50 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [KOD SOUL](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KOD%20SOUL) $356 $2,917 8.20x 2026-11-03 15:16 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $356 $2,917 8.20x 2026-11-03 08:15 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $356 $2,917 8.20x 2026-11-03 07:30 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [triple](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/triple) $356 $2,917 8.20x 2026-11-03 07:30 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $356 $2,917 8.20x 2026-11-03 05:49 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $356 $2,917 8.20x 2026-11-03 05:49 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $356 $2,917 8.20x 2026-11-02 22:53 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $356 $2,917 8.20x 2026-11-02 22:35 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=bloody-mary-joker)

[XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) [MÓJKODWACKIJA](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/M%C3%93JKODWACKIJA) $350 $12.24 0.03x 2026-11-09 20:55 UTC

[UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-factory-new) [Scofield\_gda](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Scofield_gda) $350 $64.75 0.18x 2026-11-09 20:55 UTC

[UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-factory-new) [MÓJKODWACKIJA](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/M%C3%93JKODWACKIJA) $350 $64.75 0.18x 2026-11-09 20:55 UTC

[UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-factory-new) [Scofield\_gda](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Scofield_gda) $350 $64.75 0.18x 2026-11-09 20:55 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-death-grip-well-worn) [MÓJKODWACKIJA](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/M%C3%93JKODWACKIJA) $350 $18.21 0.05x 2026-11-09 20:55 UTC

[USP-S | The Traitor weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor) [Scofield\_gda](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Scofield_gda) $350 $41.32 0.12x 2026-11-09 20:55 UTC

[Sticker | Lucas (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas-foil) Hidden $350 $7.96 0.02x 2026-11-09 20:52 UTC

[USP-S | The Traitor weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor) [MÓJKODWACKIJA](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/M%C3%93JKODWACKIJA) $350 $41.32 0.12x 2026-11-09 20:52 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $350 $2,826 8.07x 2026-11-09 20:52 UTC

[USP-S | The Traitor weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor) [MÓJKODWACKIJA](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/M%C3%93JKODWACKIJA) $350 $41.32 0.12x 2026-11-09 20:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $350 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $351 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $354 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $351 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $352 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $353 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $353 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $353 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $353 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $353 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $353 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $354 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $353 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $353 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $355 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $356 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $356 | 87.50% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 3.3% covert 20.3% restricted 6.7% classified 5.0% Covert 1.7% blue 26.7% mil spec 3.3% consumer 3.3% Ancient 0.8% red 3.9% rare 3.3% pink 8.3% violet 13.3% best hit $2,917 (8.20x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt