---
title: "BLOODY MARY case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "BLOODY MARY ($20.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.31% from 47 items with odds, observed 87.34% over 70.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [BLOODY MARY](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · BLOODY MARY

A case on Casehug (Event), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary?window=all)

Price · $20.00

Advertised RTP · 87.31% · EV $17.46 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.34% · 70.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 86.40% ±1.29 46.6K openings

30 days · 87.34% ±1.05 70.5K openings

since tracking started · 87.34% ±1.05 70.5K openings

84.5% 86.8% 89.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary?window=7d) | 46.6K | 86.40% ±1.29 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary) | 70.5K | 87.34% ±1.05 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/bloody-mary?window=all) | 70.5K | 87.34% ±1.05 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 70.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 50,000 | $2,826 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 33,333 | $1,899 | 0.3% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.42× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,222 | 0.4% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $880 | 0.5% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $649 | 0.7% | 14 | 14.1 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $592 | 0.7% | 9 | 14.1 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $334 | 0.2% | 0 | 7.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $279 | 0.2% | 0 | 7.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $244 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $223 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 2,000 | $154 | 0.4% | 26 | 35.3 | 0.74× |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $114 | 0.3% | 0 | 28.2 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-well-worn) | 1 in 1,667 | $99.69 | 0.3% | 0 | 42.4 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $84.07 | 2.4% | 240 | 353.0 | 0.68× |
| [Galil AR \| Shattered (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-factory-new) | 1 in 114 | $65.88 | 3.3% | 506 | 621.3 | 0.81× |
| [UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-factory-new) | 1 in 112 | $64.75 | 3.3% | 742 | 628.3 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 1 in 102 | $58.68 | 3.3% | 783 | 691.9 | 1.13× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $46.56 | 7.5% | 1,901 | 1990.9 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 137 | $43.13 | 1.8% | 0 | 515.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $42.89 | 2.3% | 0 | 670.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 132 | $42.34 | 1.8% | 0 | 536.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $42.11 | 1.9% | 0 | 543.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) | 1 in 90 | $39.75 | 2.5% | 0 | 783.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $38.34 | 2.0% | 0 | 649.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $37.65 | 2.7% | 0 | 868.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 141 | $34.15 | 1.4% | 0 | 501.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $27.29 | 1.8% | 0 | 790.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-well-worn) | 1 in 68 | $23.90 | 2.0% | 0 | 1037.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $23.59 | 2.1% | 0 | 1108.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 64 | $23.58 | 2.1% | 0 | 1108.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $23.30 | 2.1% | 0 | 1094.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $23.19 | 2.1% | 0 | 1094.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $23.10 | 2.2% | 0 | 1164.9 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $22.92 | 7.9% | 4,362 | 4250.0 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $18.21 | 5.0% | 3,408 | 3360.5 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $13.63 | 4.2% | 3,806 | 3805.2 | 1.00× |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $12.24 | 3.9% | 3,979 | 3953.5 | 1.01× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $10.94 | 1.1% | 0 | 1186.0 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $10.27 | 1.1% | 0 | 1334.3 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $9.95 | 3.5% | 4,218 | 4299.4 | 0.98× |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $8.51 | 3.1% | 4,639 | 4546.5 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $8.06 | 1.2% | 0 | 1828.5 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Lucas (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas-foil) | 1 in 15 | $8.02 | 3.1% | 4,693 | 4694.8 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $7.27 | 2.9% | 4,948 | 4892.4 | 1.01× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $7.05 | 2.8% | 4,854 | 4941.9 | 0.98× |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $6.89 | 2.8% | 4,955 | 4991.3 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $5.11 | 2.3% | 5,551 | 5584.3 | 0.99× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/bloody-mary`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $20.00 $2,868 143.4x 2026-11-03 22:44 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $20.00 $1,920 95.99x 2026-11-05 10:51 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [mamm0n469](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mamm0n469) $20.00 $1,899 94.97x 2026-11-09 16:16 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Tom Mole](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Tom%20Mole) $20.00 $1,899 94.97x 2026-11-05 18:37 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $20.00 $1,291 64.57x 2026-11-07 12:44 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [straty](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/straty) $20.00 $1,291 64.56x 2026-11-07 17:57 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $20.00 $903 45.13x 2026-11-03 23:08 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [cskiller](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/cskiller) $20.00 $903 45.13x 2026-11-03 17:05 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $20.00 $903 45.13x 2026-11-02 23:00 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $20.00 $895 44.75x 2026-11-05 01:05 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=bloody-mary)

[Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan) [SEKO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SEKO) $20.00 $9.52 0.48x 2026-11-09 21:03 UTC

[Souvenir G3SG1 | New Roots (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) [SEKO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SEKO) $20.00 $8.51 0.43x 2026-11-09 21:03 UTC

[Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan) [SEKO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SEKO) $20.00 $9.52 0.48x 2026-11-09 21:03 UTC

[Tec-9 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) [SEKO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SEKO) $20.00 $9.95 0.50x 2026-11-09 21:03 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-death-grip-well-worn) [SEKO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SEKO) $20.00 $18.21 0.91x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[Sticker | Lucas (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas-foil) [SEKO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SEKO) $20.00 $8.02 0.40x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $7.05 0.35x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $7.05 0.35x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) [jebac marka maruche CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/jebac%20marka%20maruche%20CSGOSKINS) $20.00 $46.56 2.33x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[Souvenir Nova | Quick Sand (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-well-worn) Hidden $20.00 $6.89 0.34x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $20.00 | 87.31% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $20.00 | 87.70% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $20.00 | 87.69% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $20.00 | 87.86% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $20.00 | 87.69% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $20.00 | 87.47% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $20.00 | 87.72% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $20.00 | 87.67% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $20.00 | 87.68% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $20.00 | 87.88% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $20.00 | 87.91% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $20.00 | 87.85% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $20.00 | 87.70% | 47 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $20.00 | 87.73% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 2.3% restricted 1.0% classified 2.3% Covert 0.1% blue 39.7% mil spec 0.9% consumer 2.8% Ancient 0.7% red 3.6% rare 5.7% pink 16.9% violet 24.1% best hit $2,868 (143.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.31 on average: an expected loss of $12.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt