---
title: "BLOSSOM WISH JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "BLOSSOM WISH JOKER ($40.12) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 41 items with odds, observed 88.94% over 7,189 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T07:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [BLOSSOM WISH JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · BLOSSOM WISH JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish-joker?window=all)

Price · $40.12

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $35.10 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.94% · 7,189 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.97% ±5.89 4,659 openings

7 days · 88.94% ±4.75 7,189 openings

30 days · 88.94% ±4.75 7,189 openings

since tracking started · 88.94% ±4.75 7,189 openings

82.5% 89.0% 95.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish-joker?window=24h) | 4,659 | 88.97% ±5.89 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish-joker?window=7d) | 7,189 | 88.94% ±4.75 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish-joker) | 7,189 | 88.94% ±4.75 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish-joker?window=all) | 7,189 | 88.94% ±4.75 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,257 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 30 | $393 | 37.3% | 239 | 241.9 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) | 1 in 30 | $234 | 22.2% | 254 | 241.9 | 1.05× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $133 | 12.7% | 247 | 241.9 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $90.85 | 2.2% | 0 | 60.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $70.26 | 6.7% | 250 | 241.9 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $58.52 | 1.4% | 0 | 60.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $57.30 | 1.4% | 0 | 60.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $47.52 | 1.1% | 0 | 60.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $46.94 | 1.1% | 0 | 60.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $39.86 | 0.9% | 0 | 60.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $36.92 | 0.9% | 0 | 60.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $36.11 | 0.9% | 0 | 60.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $28.04 | 0.9% | 0 | 80.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $23.07 | 0.7% | 0 | 80.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 90 | $22.54 | 0.7% | 0 | 80.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $21.31 | 0.5% | 0 | 60.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $12.70 | 0.3% | 0 | 60.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $11.10 | 0.3% | 0 | 60.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $10.69 | 0.3% | 0 | 60.5 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $10.16 | 1.0% | 248 | 241.9 | 1.03× |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $8.45 | 0.8% | 252 | 241.9 | 1.04× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $7.41 | 0.7% | 274 | 241.9 | 1.13× |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $6.99 | 0.7% | 227 | 241.9 | 0.94× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii CT (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-ct-holo) | 1 in 30 | $6.26 | 0.6% | 246 | 241.9 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $5.14 | 0.5% | 239 | 241.9 | 0.99× |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Battle-Scarred) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $4.85 | 0.5% | 291 | 241.9 | 1.20× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $3.99 | 0.4% | 246 | 241.9 | 1.02× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $3.90 | 0.4% | 230 | 241.9 | 0.95× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $3.29 | 0.3% | 242 | 241.9 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| First Blood sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-first-blood) | 1 in 30 | $3.09 | 0.3% | 228 | 241.9 | 0.94× |
| [M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $2.68 | 0.3% | 243 | 241.9 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $2.46 | 0.2% | 238 | 241.9 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $1.99 | 0.2% | 248 | 241.9 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch-foil) | 1 in 30 | $1.90 | 0.2% | 248 | 241.9 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| Cedar Creek (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek-holo) | 1 in 30 | $1.64 | 0.2% | 241 | 241.9 | 1.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $1.32 | 0.1% | 238 | 241.9 | 0.98× |
| [M249 \| Midnight Palm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-midnight-palm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $1.29 | 0.1% | 228 | 241.9 | 0.94× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $1.19 | 0.1% | 247 | 241.9 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Rush 4x20 (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-4x20-holo) | 1 in 30 | $1.16 | 0.1% | 201 | 241.9 | 0.83× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.95 | 0.1% | 228 | 241.9 | 0.94× |
| [Sticker \| Hypnoteyes (Holo) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes-holo) | 1 in 30 | $0.92 | 0.1% | 212 | 241.9 | 0.88× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/blossom-wish-joker`, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=blossom-wish-joker)

[Sticker | Rush 4x20 (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-4x20-holo) Hidden $40.12 $1.16 0.03x 2026-11-12 05:39 UTC

[UMP-45 | Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) Hidden $40.12 $5.14 0.13x 2026-11-12 05:39 UTC

[AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) Hidden $40.12 $0.95 0.02x 2026-11-12 05:39 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch) [✟ EmPtyK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%9C%9F%20EmPtyK) $40.12 $24.55 0.61x 2026-11-12 05:39 UTC

[MP7 | Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) Hidden $40.12 $1.99 0.05x 2026-11-12 05:38 UTC

[AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) Hidden $40.12 $0.95 0.02x 2026-11-12 05:38 UTC

[Sticker | Cedar Creek (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek-holo) Hidden $40.12 $1.64 0.04x 2026-11-12 05:38 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) [✟ EmPtyK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%9C%9F%20EmPtyK) $40.12 $234 5.83x 2026-11-12 05:38 UTC

[Sticker | Rush 4x20 (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-4x20-holo) Hidden $40.12 $1.16 0.03x 2026-11-12 05:21 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) [furneyyy\_aimbot](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/furneyyy_aimbot) $40.12 $3.90 0.10x 2026-11-12 05:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $40.12 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $40.07 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $40.38 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $39.94 | 88.50% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 7.5% red 5.8% sunny 3.3% rare 2.5% Ancient 0.8% pink 8.9% classified 2.8% Legendary 0.8% Classified 0.8% blue 23.3% violet 13.3% gray 13.3% blueLight 3.3% #d32ce6 3.3% restricted 3.3% Uncommon 3.3% common 3.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt