---
title: "BLOSSOM WISH case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "BLOSSOM WISH ($2.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 41 items with odds, observed 86.36% over 62.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:16Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [BLOSSOM WISH](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · BLOSSOM WISH

A case on Casehug (Event), first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish?window=all)

Price · $2.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.19 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.36% · 62.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.64% ±1.61 35.6K openings

7 days · 86.36% ±1.21 62.9K openings

30 days · 86.36% ±1.21 62.9K openings

since tracking started · 86.36% ±1.21 62.9K openings

83.5% 85.8% 88.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish?window=24h) | 35.6K | 85.64% ±1.61 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish?window=7d) | 62.9K | 86.36% ±1.21 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish) | 62.9K | 86.36% ±1.21 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/blossom-wish?window=all) | 62.9K | 86.36% ±1.21 | −1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 63.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 33,333 | $393 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) | 1 in 14,286 | $234 | 0.7% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.90× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $133 | 0.6% | 5 | 6.4 | 0.78× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $90.85 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $70.26 | 1.0% | 15 | 19.1 | 0.78× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $58.52 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $57.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $47.52 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $46.94 | 0.2% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $39.86 | 0.2% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $36.92 | 0.2% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $36.11 | 0.2% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $28.04 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,667 | $23.07 | 0.2% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $22.54 | 0.2% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $21.31 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $12.70 | 0.3% | 0 | 38.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 1,429 | $11.10 | 0.4% | 0 | 44.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,429 | $10.69 | 0.3% | 0 | 44.6 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 476 | $10.16 | 1.0% | 118 | 133.9 | 0.88× |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 217 | $8.45 | 1.8% | 264 | 293.4 | 0.90× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 189 | $7.41 | 1.8% | 322 | 338.0 | 0.95× |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 179 | $6.99 | 1.8% | 312 | 357.2 | 0.87× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii CT (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-ct-holo) | 1 in 159 | $6.26 | 1.8% | 393 | 401.8 | 0.98× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $5.14 | 4.4% | 1,175 | 1192.7 | 0.99× |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Battle-Scarred) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $4.85 | 4.4% | 1,261 | 1262.8 | 1.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $3.99 | 4.4% | 1,407 | 1537.1 | 0.92× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $3.90 | 4.4% | 1,532 | 1575.4 | 0.97× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $3.29 | 6.9% | 2,906 | 2921.1 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| First Blood sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-first-blood) | 1 in 20 | $3.09 | 6.9% | 3,154 | 3112.5 | 1.01× |
| [M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $2.68 | 6.9% | 3,571 | 3584.4 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $2.46 | 6.6% | 3,659 | 3724.8 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $1.99 | 5.8% | 3,979 | 4050.0 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch-foil) | 1 in 15 | $1.90 | 5.6% | 4,157 | 4126.6 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Cedar Creek (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek-holo) | 1 in 15 | $1.64 | 5.1% | 4,248 | 4375.3 | 0.97× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.32 | 4.5% | 4,699 | 4777.1 | 0.98× |
| [M249 \| Midnight Palm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-midnight-palm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $1.29 | 4.5% | 5,062 | 4821.8 | 1.05× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.19 | 4.2% | 4,907 | 4974.8 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Rush 4x20 (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-4x20-holo) | 1 in 13 | $1.16 | 4.2% | 5,127 | 5025.9 | 1.02× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.95 | 3.7% | 5,586 | 5446.8 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| Hypnoteyes (Holo) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes-holo) | 1 in 12 | $0.92 | 3.6% | 5,733 | 5517.0 | 1.04× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/blossom-wish`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2.50 $398 159.1x 2026-11-10 10:21 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [ZenGv2](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ZenGv2) $2.50 $398 159.1x 2026-11-10 08:51 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) Hidden $2.50 $242 96.94x 2026-11-10 13:25 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) [pawlok](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/pawlok) $2.50 $235 93.87x 2026-11-10 18:09 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) [Lipa143](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Lipa143) $2.50 $235 93.87x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) [kajacze;k](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kajacze%3Bk) $2.50 $234 93.57x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $2.50 $134 53.50x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $2.50 $134 53.50x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [jere34511 CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/jere34511%20CS2.ME) $2.50 $134 53.50x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Bronze](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Bronze) $2.50 $134 53.50x 2026-11-10 11:07 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=blossom-wish)

[M249 | Midnight Palm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-midnight-palm-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.50 $1.29 0.52x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC

[Sticker | Cedar Creek (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek-holo) Hidden $2.50 $1.64 0.66x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC

[Sticker | Hypnoteyes (Holo) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes-holo) Hidden $2.50 $0.92 0.37x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC

[M249 | Midnight Palm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-midnight-palm-minimal-wear) [NaVi JEFREY](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/NaVi%20JEFREY) $2.50 $1.29 0.52x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC

[P2000 | Panther Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-well-worn) [XALV](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XALV) $2.50 $3.29 1.32x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC

[Sticker | Winding Scorch (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch-foil) Hidden $2.50 $1.90 0.76x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC

[Sticker | Cedar Creek (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek-holo) [GiveMeFive](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GiveMeFive) $2.50 $1.64 0.66x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC

[Sticker | Cedar Creek (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek-holo) [XALV](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XALV) $2.50 $1.64 0.66x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC

[AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) [XALV](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XALV) $2.50 $0.95 0.38x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC

[Sticker | Hypnoteyes (Holo) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes-holo) [XALV](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XALV) $2.50 $0.92 0.37x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $2.50 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $2.50 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $2.50 | 87.51% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $2.50 | 87.75% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% red 0.0% sunny 0.0% rare 0.0% Ancient 0.0% pink 4.9% classified 0.1% Legendary 0.0% Classified 0.1% blue 18.1% violet 17.2% gray 24.7% blueLight 4.6% #d32ce6 6.5% restricted 7.5% Uncommon 7.6% common 8.6% best hit $398 (159.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt