---
title: "BUTTERFLY DUST JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "BUTTERFLY DUST JOKER ($2,591.87) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 84.80% over 1,306 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T05:07Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [BUTTERFLY DUST JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · BUTTERFLY DUST JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust-joker?window=all)

Price · $2,591.87

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2,267.88 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.80% · 1,306 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.32% ±13.85 443 openings

7 days · 86.52% ±8.64 1,136 openings

30 days · 84.80% ±8.05 1,306 openings

since tracking started · 84.80% ±8.05 1,306 openings

72.0% 86.5% 101.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust-joker?window=24h) | 443 | 86.32% ±13.8 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust-joker?window=7d) | 1,136 | 86.52% ±8.64 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust-joker) | 1,306 | 84.80% ±8.05 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust-joker?window=all) | 1,306 | 84.80% ±8.05 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,549 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 18 | $13.7K | 33.7% | 83 | 86.0 | 0.96× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 18 | $9,333 | 22.9% | 88 | 86.0 | 1.02× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 18 | $8,088 | 19.8% | 75 | 86.0 | 0.87× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 18 | $3,123 | 7.6% | 107 | 86.0 | 1.24× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 18 | $2,268 | 5.6% | 89 | 86.0 | 1.03× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $1,360 | 3.3% | 74 | 86.0 | 0.86× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $784 | 1.9% | 83 | 86.0 | 0.96× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $716 | 1.8% | 82 | 86.0 | 0.95× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $650 | 1.6% | 76 | 86.1 | 0.88× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $569 | 1.4% | 83 | 86.1 | 0.96× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $57.97 | 0.1% | 91 | 86.1 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $56.57 | 0.1% | 92 | 86.1 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $17.80 | 0.0% | 82 | 86.1 | 0.95× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $12.50 | 0.0% | 94 | 86.1 | 1.09× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $12.36 | 0.0% | 70 | 86.1 | 0.81× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $12.26 | 0.0% | 99 | 86.1 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $9.78 | 0.0% | 94 | 86.1 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $8.92 | 0.0% | 87 | 86.1 | 1.01× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/butterfly-dust-joker`, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [ytb: Lukasscz](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ytb%3A%20Lukasscz) $2,701 $14.1K 5.22x 2026-11-02 23:08 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $2,705 $14.1K 5.20x 2026-11-03 16:27 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2,705 $14.1K 5.20x 2026-11-03 14:01 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2,705 $14.1K 5.20x 2026-11-03 14:00 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [klu5ek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/klu5ek) $2,705 $14.1K 5.20x 2026-11-03 14:00 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2,705 $14.1K 5.20x 2026-11-03 13:59 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2,705 $14.1K 5.20x 2026-11-03 13:58 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [klu5ek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/klu5ek) $2,705 $14.1K 5.20x 2026-11-03 13:58 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2,705 $14.1K 5.20x 2026-11-03 13:58 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2,673 $14K 5.24x 2026-11-05 15:53 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=butterfly-dust-joker)

[AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) Hidden $2,592 $17.80 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,592 $8,088 3.12x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC

[FAMAS | Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) Hidden $2,592 $57.97 0.02x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [CRISTIANO RONALDO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CRISTIANO%20RONALDO) $2,592 $1,360 0.52x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $2,592 $1,360 0.52x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) Hidden $2,592 $8.92 0.00x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $2,592 $3,123 1.20x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC

[P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) [CRISTIANO RONALDO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CRISTIANO%20RONALDO) $2,592 $12.26 0.00x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC

[AWP | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) Hidden $2,592 $56.57 0.02x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC

[AWP | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) Hidden $2,592 $56.57 0.02x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC | $2,592 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $2,597 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $2,621 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $2,597 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $2,618 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $2,624 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $2,640 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $2,649 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $2,648 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $2,657 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $2,652 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $2,661 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $2,657 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2,670 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $2,673 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $2,687 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $2,673 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $2,687 | 87.50% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 50.0% gold 5.6% uncommon 5.6% red 5.6% pink 33.3% best hit $14.1K (5.22x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt