--- title: "BUTTERFLY DUST case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "BUTTERFLY DUST ($79.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 88.36% over 11.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust rendered: 2026-11-11T18:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [BUTTERFLY DUST](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · BUTTERFLY DUST A case on Casehug (PREMIUM FARM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust?window=all) Price · $79.00 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $69.13 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.36% · 11.9K openings, odds method Variance · 17.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 24 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 98.58% ±17.82 2,064 openings 7 days · 85.96% ±8.24 9,861 openings 30 days · 88.36% ±7.54 11.9K openings since tracking started · 88.36% ±7.54 11.9K openings 77.0% 97.0% 117.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust?window=24h) | 2,064 | 98.58% ±17.8 | +1.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust?window=7d) | 9,861 | 85.96% ±8.24 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust) | 11.9K | 88.36% ±7.54 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/butterfly-dust?window=all) | 11.9K | 88.36% ±7.54 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.9K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $13.7K | 2.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.84× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $9,374 | 2.7% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $8,112 | 5.9% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.17× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 2,500 | $3,139 | 1.8% | 7 | 4.8 | 1.47× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 667 | $2,286 | 5.0% | 16 | 17.9 | 0.89× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,353 | 4.9% | 32 | 29.8 | 1.07× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $795 | 12.8% | 128 | 132.3 | 0.97× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $720 | 12.8% | 138 | 146.6 | 0.94× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $663 | 12.8% | 146 | 158.5 | 0.92× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $571 | 12.8% | 211 | 184.7 | 1.14× | | [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $58.42 | 6.8% | 937 | 957.1 | 0.98× | | [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $53.77 | 6.4% | 999 | 980.9 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 11.6% | $16.96 | 2.9% | 1,397 | 1386.2 | 1.01× | | [P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) | 12.8% | $12.50 | 2.3% | 1,486 | 1519.7 | 0.98× | | [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-minimal-wear) | 12.8% | $12.50 | 2.3% | 1,514 | 1519.7 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) | 12.8% | $12.26 | 2.3% | 1,488 | 1528.0 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 13.6% | $9.99 | 2.0% | 1,658 | 1625.8 | 1.02× | | [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 14.4% | $8.31 | 1.7% | 1,753 | 1717.5 | 1.02× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/butterfly-dust`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [STASZEK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/STASZEK) $79.00 $13.7K 174.0x 2026-11-11 16:26 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $79.00 $9,580 121.3x 2026-11-05 23:36 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [WW](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/WW) $79.00 $8,698 110.1x 2026-11-03 21:52 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [CrazyFlasH](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CrazyFlasH) $79.00 $8,698 110.1x 2026-11-03 16:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $79.00 $8,635 109.3x 2026-11-03 00:14 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Troglodytor](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Troglodytor) $79.00 $8,413 106.5x 2026-11-05 11:52 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $79.00 $8,413 106.5x 2026-11-05 02:53 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $79.00 $8,397 106.3x 2026-11-06 15:55 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [GigaN CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GigaN%20CS2.ME) $79.00 $8,112 102.7x 2026-11-11 17:48 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $79.00 $3,155 39.94x 2026-11-06 19:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=butterfly-dust) [P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $79.00 $12.50 0.16x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) [❟❛❟hAEMHYPE火影｡⋆](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%9D%9F%E2%9D%9B%E2%9D%9FhAEMHYPE%E7%81%AB%E5%BD%B1%EF%BD%A1%E2%8B%86) $79.00 $9.99 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) Hidden $79.00 $9.99 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC [AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) [❟❛❟hAEMHYPE火影｡⋆](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%9D%9F%E2%9D%9B%E2%9D%9FhAEMHYPE%E7%81%AB%E5%BD%B1%EF%BD%A1%E2%8B%86) $79.00 $9.99 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC [P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $79.00 $12.50 0.16x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC [P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) [❟❛❟hAEMHYPE火影｡⋆](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%9D%9F%E2%9D%9B%E2%9D%9FhAEMHYPE%E7%81%AB%E5%BD%B1%EF%BD%A1%E2%8B%86) $79.00 $12.50 0.16x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC [FAMAS | Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) Hidden $79.00 $58.42 0.74x 2026-11-11 18:43 UTC [AWP | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) [❟❛❟hAEMHYPE火影｡⋆](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%9D%9F%E2%9D%9B%E2%9D%9FhAEMHYPE%E7%81%AB%E5%BD%B1%EF%BD%A1%E2%8B%86) $79.00 $53.77 0.68x 2026-11-11 18:43 UTC [AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) Hidden $79.00 $16.96 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:42 UTC [Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-minimal-wear) [❟❛❟hAEMHYPE火影｡⋆](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%9D%9F%E2%9D%9B%E2%9D%9FhAEMHYPE%E7%81%AB%E5%BD%B1%EF%BD%A1%E2%8B%86) $79.00 $12.50 0.16x 2026-11-11 18:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $79.00 | 87.50% | 18 | | 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $79.00 | 87.50% | 18 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $79.00 | 87.43% | 18 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $79.00 | 86.27% | 18 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $79.00 | 86.58% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $79.00 | 86.60% | 18 | | 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $79.00 | 86.66% | 18 | | 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $79.00 | 87.21% | 18 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $79.00 | 87.05% | 18 | | 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $79.00 | 86.68% | 18 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $79.00 | 87.08% | 18 | | 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $79.00 | 87.37% | 18 | | 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $79.00 | 87.71% | 18 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $79.00 | 87.85% | 18 | | 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $79.00 | 88.13% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $79.00 | 87.95% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.6% gold 1.1% uncommon 8.0% red 8.2% pink 78.0% best hit $13.7K (174.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt