---
title: "CANDY DROP JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CANDY DROP JOKER ($13.96) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.49% from 30 items with odds, observed 84.16% over 12.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [CANDY DROP JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · CANDY DROP JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop-joker?window=all)

Price · $13.96

Advertised RTP · 87.49% · EV $12.21 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.16% · 12.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 75.79% ±11.80 1,526 openings

7 days · 84.29% ±4.50 10.3K openings

30 days · 84.16% ±4.11 12.5K openings

since tracking started · 84.16% ±4.11 12.5K openings

63.5% 76.5% 89.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop-joker?window=24h) | 1,526 | 75.79% ±11.8 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop-joker?window=7d) | 10.3K | 84.29% ±4.50 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop-joker) | 12.5K | 84.16% ±4.11 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop-joker?window=all) | 12.5K | 84.16% ±4.11 | −1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $137 | 62.5% | 663 | 694.8 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $53.21 | 24.2% | 675 | 694.8 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $10.57 | 2.4% | 0 | 347.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $6.56 | 1.5% | 0 | 347.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $5.56 | 2.5% | 672 | 694.8 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $4.45 | 2.0% | 685 | 694.8 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $3.52 | 1.6% | 690 | 694.8 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $1.56 | 0.4% | 0 | 347.3 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $1.55 | 0.7% | 697 | 694.8 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $1.33 | 0.3% | 0 | 347.4 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $0.98 | 0.1% | 0 | 173.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $0.87 | 0.2% | 0 | 347.4 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $0.86 | 0.1% | 0 | 173.7 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.61 | 0.3% | 724 | 694.9 | 1.04× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $0.46 | 0.1% | 0 | 173.7 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $0.46 | 0.1% | 0 | 347.4 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $0.46 | 0.1% | 0 | 231.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 347.4 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $0.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 231.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 173.7 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 173.7 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $0.41 | 0.1% | 0 | 231.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 173.7 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 173.7 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 173.7 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| Prototype (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-prototype-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.32 | 0.1% | 706 | 694.9 | 1.02× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $0.28 | 0.1% | 708 | 694.9 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 347.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.20 | 0.1% | 693 | 694.9 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.17 | 0.1% | 702 | 694.9 | 1.01× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/candy-drop-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=candy-drop-joker)

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries) Hidden $13.76 $8.24 0.60x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC

[Tec-9 | Brother weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother) Hidden $13.76 $0.44 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC

[P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) [gebeş\_kedi4131 | Uhud Okçusu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/gebe%C5%9F_kedi4131%20%7C%20Uhud%20Ok%C3%A7usu) $13.76 $0.60 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC

[Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-prototype-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.76 $0.35 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) [gebeş\_kedi4131 | Uhud Okçusu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/gebe%C5%9F_kedi4131%20%7C%20Uhud%20Ok%C3%A7usu) $13.76 $3.60 0.26x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) [Show DLL](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Show%20DLL) $13.76 $3.60 0.26x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $13.76 $3.60 0.26x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC

[Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-field-tested) [Show DLL](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Show%20DLL) $13.76 $1.58 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC

[Nova | Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) Hidden $13.76 $0.31 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) Hidden $13.76 $51.26 3.73x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $13.96 | 87.49% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $13.96 | 87.48% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $13.80 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $13.91 | 87.51% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $13.90 | 87.51% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $13.47 | 87.51% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $13.15 | 87.47% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $13.29 | 87.48% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $14.00 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $13.78 | 87.48% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $13.72 | 87.52% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $13.91 | 87.52% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $13.78 | 87.48% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $13.91 | 87.52% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $14.23 | 87.49% | 30 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $14.02 | 87.51% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 5.6% covert 5.6% classified 2.8% Legendary 13.9% Mythical 9.7% violet 27.3% mil spec 5.6% #4b69ff 2.8% #8847ff 1.9% blue 25.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.49 on average: an expected loss of $12.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt