---
title: "CANDY DROP case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "CANDY DROP ($0.40) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 30 items with odds, observed 85.18% over 126K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [CANDY DROP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · CANDY DROP

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop?window=all)

Price · $0.40

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.35 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.18% · 126K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.59% ±2.98 14.6K openings

7 days · 84.82% ±1.08 106K openings

30 days · 85.18% ±1.00 126K openings

since tracking started · 85.18% ±1.00 126K openings

79.0% 84.3% 89.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 88.63% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.18% – 86.17%, 126,231 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop?window=24h) | 14.6K | 82.59% ±2.98 | −3.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop?window=7d) | 106K | 84.82% ±1.08 | −6.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop) | 126K | 85.18% ±1.00 | −6.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-drop?window=all) | 126K | 85.18% ±1.00 | −6.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 127K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $137 | 0.8% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $53.21 | 0.5% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $10.57 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $6.56 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $5.56 | 0.2% | 12 | 19.0 | 0.63× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $4.45 | 0.3% | 19 | 25.4 | 0.75× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $3.52 | 0.5% | 36 | 63.4 | 0.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 136 | $1.56 | 3.3% | 0 | 931.9 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $1.55 | 7.1% | 1,544 | 2036.2 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 99 | $1.33 | 3.8% | 0 | 1281.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 313 | $0.98 | 0.9% | 0 | 404.4 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 104 | $0.87 | 2.4% | 0 | 1219.7 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 255 | $0.86 | 1.0% | 0 | 497.0 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.61 | 7.1% | 3,907 | 5172.8 | 0.76× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $0.46 | 1.9% | 0 | 1833.3 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.46 | 2.2% | 0 | 2165.5 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $0.46 | 2.2% | 0 | 2079.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.44 | 4.7% | 0 | 4762.0 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $0.44 | 2.3% | 0 | 2367.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $0.41 | 2.1% | 0 | 2308.7 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $0.41 | 2.0% | 0 | 2183.2 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $0.41 | 2.5% | 0 | 2727.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $0.40 | 2.2% | 0 | 2425.4 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $0.40 | 2.1% | 0 | 2293.5 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $0.40 | 2.1% | 0 | 2293.5 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| Prototype (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-prototype-minimal-wear) | 12.8% | $0.32 | 11.7% | 15,245 | 16265.1 | 0.94× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) | 13.5% | $0.28 | 10.8% | 16,298 | 17156.4 | 0.95× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-field-tested) | 10.8% | $0.20 | 6.2% | 0 | 13680.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) | 15.5% | $0.20 | 8.8% | 19,225 | 19627.4 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-minimal-wear) | 16.5% | $0.17 | 8.0% | 21,200 | 20946.0 | 1.01× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/candy-drop`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=candy-drop)

[Tec-9 | Brother weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother) [CS2.ME KHABIB](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CS2.ME%20KHABIB) $0.40 $0.43 1.08x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-prototype-minimal-wear) [CS2.ME KHABIB](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CS2.ME%20KHABIB) $0.40 $0.32 0.80x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) [CS2.ME KHABIB](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CS2.ME%20KHABIB) $0.40 $0.20 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-minimal-wear) [CS2.ME KHABIB](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CS2.ME%20KHABIB) $0.40 $0.17 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[Nova | Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) [sinedovski69](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/sinedovski69) $0.40 $0.28 0.70x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-minimal-wear) [sinedovski69](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/sinedovski69) $0.40 $0.17 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-prototype-minimal-wear) [plypysz\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/plypysz_) $0.40 $0.32 0.80x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) [plypysz\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/plypysz_) $0.40 $0.20 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[MP5-SD | Kitbash weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash) [plypysz\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/plypysz_) $0.40 $0.53 1.33x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) [sinedovski69](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/sinedovski69) $0.40 $0.20 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.40 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $0.40 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $0.40 | 88.01% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $0.40 | 88.75% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $0.40 | 88.70% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $0.40 | 88.84% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $0.40 | 88.26% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $0.40 | 88.63% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.40 | 87.98% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $0.40 | 89.06% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $0.40 | 89.13% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.40 | 88.59% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $0.40 | 89.76% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $0.40 | 90.53% | 30 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $0.40 | 88.58% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 0.0% covert 0.0% classified 0.0% Legendary 0.0% Mythical 2.5% violet 20.8% mil spec 4.1% #4b69ff 1.6% #8847ff 1.9% blue 69.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt