---
title: "CANDY SHOP JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CANDY SHOP JOKER ($111.36) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 63 items with odds, observed 85.93% over 531 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:56Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [CANDY SHOP JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · CANDY SHOP JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop-joker?window=all)

Price · $111.36

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $97.44 from 63 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.93% · 531 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 29 openings · below min

7 days · 84.24% ±8.47 492 openings

30 days · 85.93% ±8.15 531 openings

since tracking started · 85.93% ±8.15 531 openings

50.0% 85.8% 121.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop-joker?window=24h) | 29 | 85.87% ±35.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop-joker?window=7d) | 492 | 84.24% ±8.47 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop-joker) | 531 | 85.93% ±8.15 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop-joker?window=all) | 531 | 85.93% ±8.15 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 63 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 583 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $469 | 16.6% | 19 | 20.1 | 0.95× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $309 | 10.9% | 24 | 20.1 | 1.19× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $222 | 7.8% | 23 | 20.1 | 1.14× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $219 | 3.9% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $203 | 7.2% | 14 | 20.1 | 0.70× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $199 | 3.5% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $172 | 6.1% | 12 | 20.1 | 0.60× |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $169 | 6.0% | 17 | 20.1 | 0.85× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $154 | 2.7% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $151 | 5.3% | 20 | 20.1 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $141 | 5.0% | 20 | 20.1 | 0.99× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $117 | 2.1% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $115 | 2.0% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $95.81 | 1.1% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $94.74 | 1.7% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $92.83 | 1.6% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $72.66 | 1.3% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $70.26 | 1.2% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $69.39 | 1.2% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $66.94 | 1.2% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $56.47 | 1.0% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $47.44 | 0.8% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $46.28 | 0.5% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $41.17 | 0.7% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $40.00 | 0.5% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $38.75 | 0.7% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $37.42 | 0.7% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $36.92 | 1.3% | 21 | 20.1 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $35.83 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 145 | $34.49 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-factory-new) | 1 in 145 | $30.31 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $29.67 | 1.0% | 16 | 20.1 | 0.80× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $25.61 | 0.5% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $23.99 | 0.4% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $23.06 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $22.66 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $22.47 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 1 in 145 | $18.07 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 145 | $17.52 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-factory-new) | 1 in 145 | $16.52 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $12.12 | 0.4% | 20 | 20.1 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 145 | $8.31 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 145 | $8.10 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $7.54 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 145 | $7.51 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-minimal-wear) | 1 in 145 | $7.46 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 145 | $6.39 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) | 1 in 145 | $5.95 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 145 | $5.88 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $5.55 | 0.1% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-well-worn) | 1 in 145 | $5.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) | 1 in 145 | $5.39 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-battle-scarred) | 1 in 145 | $5.28 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 145 | $5.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 145 | $5.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $4.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $4.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 145 | $4.38 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $4.38 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $4.24 | 0.2% | 23 | 20.1 | 1.14× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 145 | $4.07 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 145 | $4.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $2.65 | 0.0% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/candy-shop-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=candy-shop-joker)

[AK-47 | B the Monster (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-minimal-wear) Hidden $111 $151 1.35x 2026-11-11 21:51 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $111 $222 1.99x 2026-11-11 21:51 UTC

[USP-S | Monster Mashup weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $111 $26.01 0.23x 2026-11-11 21:51 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard) Hidden $111 $4.10 0.04x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC

[AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) Hidden $111 $36.92 0.33x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC

[M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-battle-scarred) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $111 $169 1.52x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $111 $309 2.77x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened) [愛](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E6%84%9B) $111 $168 1.51x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC

[AK-47 | Searing Rage weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage) [SOMSIADSAMOZLO SKINS CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SOMSIADSAMOZLO%20SKINS%20CS2.ME) $113 $10.02 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:52 UTC

[M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) Hidden $113 $30.91 0.27x 2026-11-11 15:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $111 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $113 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $113 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $113 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $113 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $113 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $113 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $113 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $114 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $113 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $113 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $113 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $114 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $114 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $114 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $114 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $114 | 87.50% | 63 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 6.9% covert 20.1% sunny 1.7% extraordinary 6.9% rare 8.6% Ancient 12.6% Immortal 1.7% classified 17.6% Covert 1.7% red 1.7% pink 10.0% uncommon 1.4% Legendary 1.4% restricted 2.6% Mythical 3.4% #d32ce6 0.7% violet 0.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt