---
title: "CANDY SHOP case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "CANDY SHOP ($45.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 63 items with odds, observed 87.81% over 3,853 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [CANDY SHOP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · CANDY SHOP

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop?window=all)

Price · $45.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $39.37 from 63 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.81% · 3,853 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.53% ±8.30 535 openings

7 days · 86.94% ±3.28 3,359 openings

30 days · 87.81% ±3.05 3,853 openings

since tracking started · 87.81% ±3.05 3,853 openings

75.5% 84.5% 93.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop?window=24h) | 535 | 84.53% ±8.30 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop?window=7d) | 3,359 | 86.94% ±3.28 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop) | 3,853 | 87.81% ±3.05 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/candy-shop?window=all) | 3,853 | 87.81% ±3.05 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 63 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,854 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $473 | 0.7% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.30× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $318 | 0.7% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.73× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 769 | $228 | 0.8% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $219 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-battle-scarred) | 1 in 714 | $203 | 0.7% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $198 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 588 | $172 | 0.7% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.92× |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 588 | $171 | 0.7% | 24 | 6.6 | 3.66× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $168 | 6.1% | 33 | 55.5 | 0.59× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $149 | 2.6% | 0 | 27.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $140 | 6.1% | 103 | 66.7 | 1.54× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $117 | 4.0% | 0 | 52.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $114 | 3.5% | 0 | 46.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 127 | $98.91 | 2.0% | 0 | 30.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $95.53 | 5.7% | 0 | 90.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $93.39 | 5.8% | 0 | 94.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $75.90 | 5.2% | 0 | 103.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $75.37 | 8.3% | 0 | 167.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $66.60 | 4.3% | 0 | 99.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $62.44 | 6.2% | 0 | 150.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $57.58 | 4.4% | 0 | 117.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $47.11 | 5.2% | 0 | 167.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $45.56 | 4.3% | 0 | 141.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $41.52 | 1.7% | 0 | 60.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $40.23 | 1.4% | 0 | 53.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $38.14 | 2.5% | 87 | 100.6 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $38.08 | 1.1% | 0 | 45.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $37.36 | 1.5% | 0 | 61.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 213 | $36.22 | 0.4% | 0 | 18.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 714 | $34.78 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $30.91 | 2.2% | 101 | 109.5 | 0.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $26.89 | 1.0% | 0 | 56.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-battle-scarred) | 1 in 64 | $25.56 | 1.0% | 0 | 60.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-factory-new) | 1 in 556 | $24.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.9 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $23.75 | 0.5% | 0 | 32.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 114 | $23.20 | 0.5% | 0 | 33.9 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $23.01 | 0.5% | 0 | 34.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 1 in 435 | $17.82 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 270 | $17.07 | 0.2% | 0 | 14.3 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-factory-new) | 1 in 357 | $16.75 | 0.1% | 0 | 10.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $11.40 | 1.2% | 165 | 163.0 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $8.73 | 0.2% | 0 | 36.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 127 | $8.58 | 0.2% | 0 | 30.4 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $7.65 | 0.1% | 0 | 28.9 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-minimal-wear) | 1 in 114 | $7.47 | 0.2% | 0 | 33.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $7.37 | 0.2% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $6.74 | 0.2% | 0 | 51.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $6.03 | 0.3% | 0 | 64.0 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) | 1 in 82 | $5.89 | 0.2% | 0 | 47.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $5.69 | 0.2% | 0 | 54.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-well-worn) | 1 in 71 | $5.66 | 0.2% | 0 | 54.3 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) | 1 in 71 | $5.32 | 0.2% | 0 | 54.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $5.20 | 0.2% | 0 | 61.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $4.88 | 0.2% | 0 | 54.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $4.85 | 0.2% | 0 | 59.7 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $4.70 | 0.2% | 0 | 64.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $4.50 | 0.2% | 0 | 66.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $4.43 | 0.3% | 0 | 93.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $4.43 | 0.2% | 0 | 67.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $4.22 | 0.2% | 0 | 66.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $4.21 | 0.7% | 242 | 242.8 | 1.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $4.16 | 0.2% | 0 | 67.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $2.63 | 0.4% | 0 | 203.1 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/candy-shop`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=candy-shop)

[M4A4 | In Living Color weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color) Hidden $45.00 $51.46 1.14x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[Glock-18 | AXIA weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia) Hidden $45.00 $26.20 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[USP-S | Monster Mashup weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup) Hidden $45.00 $25.28 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[AWP | LongDog weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog) [N:OW](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/N%3AOW) $45.00 $57.09 1.27x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption) Hidden $45.00 $94.44 2.10x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption) Hidden $45.00 $94.44 2.10x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain) Hidden $45.00 $5.33 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[AK-47 | Rat Rod weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod) [liv](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/liv) $45.00 $4.99 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[AWP | LongDog weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog) Hidden $45.00 $57.09 1.27x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[M4A4 | In Living Color weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color) [Goat\_SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Goat_SKINS) $45.00 $51.46 1.14x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $45.00 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $45.00 | 87.44% | 63 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $45.00 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $45.00 | 87.44% | 63 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $45.00 | 87.53% | 63 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $45.00 | 87.26% | 63 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $45.00 | 87.53% | 63 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $45.00 | 87.49% | 63 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $45.00 | 87.26% | 63 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $45.00 | 87.59% | 63 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $45.00 | 87.46% | 63 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $45.00 | 87.59% | 63 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $45.00 | 87.67% | 63 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $45.00 | 87.30% | 63 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $45.00 | 87.39% | 63 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $45.00 | 87.70% | 63 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $45.00 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $45.00 | 87.31% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $45.00 | 87.32% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $45.00 | 87.51% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $45.00 | 87.43% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $45.00 | 87.51% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $45.00 | 87.43% | 63 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $45.00 | 87.51% | 63 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.2% covert 13.9% sunny 0.1% extraordinary 2.0% rare 10.0% Ancient 11.9% Immortal 1.4% classified 22.9% Covert 3.0% red 1.6% pink 15.8% uncommon 1.7% Legendary 1.2% restricted 4.4% Mythical 6.9% #d32ce6 1.6% violet 1.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt