---
title: "CHAMPION JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CHAMPION JOKER ($40.51) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.49% from 26 items with odds, observed 86.69% over 1,333 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [CHAMPION JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · CHAMPION JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion-joker?window=all)

Price · $40.51

Advertised RTP · 87.49% · EV $35.44 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.69% · 1,333 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.59% ±15.68 217 openings

7 days · 85.28% ±7.35 982 openings

30 days · 86.69% ±6.31 1,333 openings

since tracking started · 86.69% ±6.31 1,333 openings

64.5% 80.8% 97.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion-joker?window=24h) | 217 | 80.59% ±15.7 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion-joker?window=7d) | 982 | 85.28% ±7.35 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion-joker) | 1,333 | 86.69% ±6.31 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion-joker?window=all) | 1,333 | 86.69% ±6.31 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,339 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $175 | 30.8% | 85 | 83.7 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $105 | 18.6% | 77 | 83.7 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $78.31 | 13.8% | 75 | 83.7 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $68.41 | 6.0% | 0 | 41.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $57.58 | 5.1% | 0 | 41.8 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $42.24 | 7.4% | 73 | 83.7 | 0.87× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $40.64 | 3.6% | 0 | 41.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $39.28 | 3.5% | 0 | 41.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $35.60 | 3.1% | 0 | 41.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $33.72 | 3.0% | 0 | 41.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $13.98 | 1.2% | 0 | 41.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $7.51 | 0.7% | 0 | 41.8 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $6.18 | 1.1% | 75 | 83.7 | 0.90× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $5.32 | 0.9% | 90 | 83.7 | 1.08× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $3.08 | 0.1% | 0 | 16.7 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $2.60 | 0.2% | 0 | 41.8 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $1.55 | 0.3% | 100 | 83.7 | 1.19× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $1.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 41.8 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Module (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $1.27 | 0.2% | 79 | 83.7 | 0.94× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $0.89 | 0.0% | 0 | 16.7 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 16.7 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 16.7 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $0.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 41.8 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.43 | 0.1% | 78 | 83.7 | 0.93× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 16.7 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 41.8 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/champion-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=champion-joker)

[P90 | Module (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-field-tested) Hidden $40.51 $1.27 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:23 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Analog Input weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input) [Back2R](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Back2R) $40.51 $0.42 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:23 UTC

[Tec-9 | Brother weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother) Hidden $40.51 $1.06 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:20 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) [kieron](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kieron) $40.51 $42.24 1.04x 2026-11-11 21:20 UTC

[AUG | Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-battle-scarred) Hidden $40.51 $6.18 0.15x 2026-11-11 21:08 UTC

[UMP-45 | Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-field-tested) Hidden $40.51 $5.32 0.13x 2026-11-11 21:08 UTC

[M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) [XyeebunnyX CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XyeebunnyX%20CS2.ME) $40.51 $175 4.31x 2026-11-11 21:08 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Analog Input weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input) Hidden $40.51 $0.42 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC

[M4A4 | Temukau weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau) Hidden $40.51 $36.50 0.90x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC

[UMP-45 | Scaffold (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-battle-scarred) Hidden $40.51 $1.55 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $40.51 | 87.49% | 26 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $39.32 | 87.51% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $40.51 | 87.49% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $38.77 | 87.51% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $39.97 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $41.15 | 87.49% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $41.60 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $40.02 | 87.49% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $41.14 | 87.51% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $40.60 | 87.49% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $41.14 | 87.51% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $40.85 | 87.51% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $40.35 | 87.49% | 26 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $40.27 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $40.35 | 87.49% | 26 |
| 2 Nov, 22:28 UTC | $41.45 | 87.50% | 26 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 9.4% classified 12.5% covert 9.4% Covert 3.1% Ancient 15.6% Legendary 9.4% rare 3.1% violet 14.4% restricted 6.3% #8847ff 10.6% mil spec 6.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.49 on average: an expected loss of $12.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt