---
title: "CHAMPION case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "CHAMPION ($4.20) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 26 items with odds, observed 85.94% over 11.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [CHAMPION](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · CHAMPION

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion?window=all)

Price · $4.20

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $3.67 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.94% · 11.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.46% ±7.85 1,881 openings

7 days · 85.47% ±3.49 9,657 openings

30 days · 85.94% ±3.24 11.2K openings

since tracking started · 85.94% ±3.24 11.2K openings

78.0% 86.5% 95.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion?window=24h) | 1,881 | 86.46% ±7.85 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion?window=7d) | 9,657 | 85.47% ±3.49 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion) | 11.2K | 85.94% ±3.24 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/champion?window=all) | 11.2K | 85.94% ±3.24 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,083 | $175 | 2.3% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 1,266 | $105 | 2.3% | 7 | 8.8 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 893 | $74.10 | 2.3% | 6 | 12.5 | 0.48× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,174 | $67.89 | 0.8% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,818 | $57.58 | 0.9% | 0 | 6.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 529 | $43.39 | 2.2% | 16 | 21.1 | 0.76× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 775 | $40.23 | 1.4% | 0 | 14.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 917 | $36.15 | 1.1% | 0 | 12.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) | 1 in 699 | $35.60 | 1.4% | 0 | 16.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 1 in 769 | $33.06 | 1.2% | 0 | 14.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $13.37 | 20.7% | 0 | 635.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 11.5% | $7.25 | 22.6% | 0 | 1280.7 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $5.94 | 12.8% | 836 | 882.7 | 0.95× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $5.32 | 12.8% | 1,262 | 985.5 | 1.28× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-factory-new) | 1 in 412 | $3.08 | 0.2% | 0 | 27.2 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $2.60 | 1.7% | 0 | 269.9 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $1.51 | 3.4% | 931 | 924.5 | 1.01× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $1.48 | 2.1% | 0 | 594.0 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Module (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $1.27 | 3.1% | 1,017 | 990.9 | 1.03× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-minimal-wear) | 1 in 73 | $0.89 | 0.3% | 0 | 154.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.46 | 0.4% | 0 | 388.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $0.44 | 0.4% | 0 | 412.9 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-field-tested) | 13.5% | $0.44 | 1.6% | 1,555 | 1514.0 | 1.03× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $0.43 | 0.8% | 0 | 745.8 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.41 | 0.5% | 0 | 455.8 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.41 | 0.8% | 0 | 797.2 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/champion`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=champion)

[Sawed-Off | Analog Input weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input) Hidden $4.20 $0.42 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-field-tested) Hidden $4.20 $0.44 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Analog Input weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input) Hidden $4.20 $0.42 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/) $4.20 $9.28 2.21x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[AUG | Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-battle-scarred) [Kaprix skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Kaprix%20skins.army) $4.20 $5.94 1.41x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Analog Input weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input) [NRForceTomi](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/NRForceTomi) $4.20 $0.42 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-field-tested) [McLovin1889](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/McLovin1889) $4.20 $0.44 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Analog Input weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input) [Nikoš](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Niko%C5%A1) $4.20 $0.42 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-field-tested) Hidden $4.20 $0.44 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders) Hidden $4.20 $9.28 2.21x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $4.20 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $4.20 | 87.79% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $4.20 | 87.88% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $4.20 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $4.20 | 87.32% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $4.20 | 87.81% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $4.20 | 87.33% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $4.20 | 87.51% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $4.20 | 87.87% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $4.20 | 87.33% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $4.20 | 87.12% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $4.20 | 87.85% | 26 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $4.20 | 87.99% | 26 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $4.20 | 87.84% | 26 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $4.20 | 87.45% | 26 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $4.20 | 88.00% | 26 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $4.20 | 87.50% | 26 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 0.1% classified 8.0% covert 0.2% Covert 0.1% Ancient 0.6% Legendary 14.5% rare 11.5% violet 25.4% restricted 8.3% #8847ff 22.6% mil spec 8.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt