---
title: "CHINATOWN JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CHINATOWN JOKER ($898.38) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.50% from 56 items with odds, observed 70.45% over 259 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [CHINATOWN JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · CHINATOWN JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown-joker?window=all)

Price · $898.38

Advertised RTP · 90.50% · EV $813.03 from 56 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 70.45% · 259 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 41 openings · below min

7 days · 56.72% ±38.44 197 openings

30 days · 70.45% ±33.45 259 openings

since tracking started · 70.45% ±33.45 259 openings

-0.5% 57.5% 115.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown-joker?window=24h) | 41 | 30.14% ±84.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown-joker?window=7d) | 197 | 56.72% ±38.4 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown-joker) | 259 | 70.45% ±33.4 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown-joker?window=all) | 259 | 70.45% ±33.4 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 479 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 29 | $13.4K | 57.0% | 17 | 16.5 | 1.03× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $3,104 | 6.6% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $2,040 | 4.3% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1,342 | 5.7% | 14 | 16.5 | 0.85× |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1,128 | 4.8% | 14 | 16.5 | 0.85× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $823 | 3.5% | 19 | 16.5 | 1.15× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $610 | 2.6% | 18 | 16.5 | 1.09× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 29 | $595 | 2.5% | 18 | 16.5 | 1.09× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $365 | 1.5% | 15 | 16.5 | 0.91× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $346 | 1.5% | 18 | 16.5 | 1.09× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $307 | 0.7% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $285 | 0.4% | 0 | 5.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 145 | $271 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $262 | 1.1% | 16 | 16.5 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $246 | 0.5% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $240 | 1.0% | 26 | 16.5 | 1.57× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $178 | 0.8% | 12 | 16.5 | 0.73× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $174 | 0.7% | 23 | 16.5 | 1.39× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $174 | 0.7% | 12 | 16.5 | 0.73× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $159 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $147 | 0.6% | 15 | 16.5 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $144 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $133 | 0.6% | 17 | 16.5 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $113 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 145 | $103 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $90.46 | 0.4% | 17 | 16.5 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $88.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $83.48 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $83.11 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $82.28 | 0.3% | 17 | 16.5 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $77.91 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $76.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 145 | $74.87 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 145 | $63.19 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 145 | $60.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $60.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $55.28 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $54.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $46.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $43.22 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $32.88 | 0.1% | 19 | 16.5 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $24.97 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $14.98 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 145 | $14.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $13.66 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $12.94 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $12.07 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $10.85 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $10.30 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 145 | $7.91 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $7.04 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $6.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $5.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 145 | $5.42 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 145 | $5.09 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 145 | $4.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/chinatown-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [mateous](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mateous) $930 $14.1K 15.14x 2026-11-03 20:29 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [mateous](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mateous) $930 $14.1K 15.14x 2026-11-03 20:22 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $930 $14.1K 15.14x 2026-11-03 18:12 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $930 $14.1K 15.14x 2026-11-03 18:11 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $930 $14.1K 15.14x 2026-11-03 18:11 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $930 $14.1K 15.14x 2026-11-03 18:11 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $930 $14.1K 15.14x 2026-11-03 18:09 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [cc](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/cc) $930 $14.1K 15.14x 2026-11-03 18:09 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $930 $14.1K 15.14x 2026-11-03 18:07 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $930 $14.1K 15.14x 2026-11-03 17:19 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=chinatown-joker)

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $898 $595 0.66x 2026-11-11 20:49 UTC

[AWP | Duality weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality) [mateous](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mateous) $898 $8.34 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:49 UTC

[MAC-10 | Stalker weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker) Hidden $898 $73.33 0.08x 2026-11-11 20:47 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fuel Injector weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector) Hidden $898 $13.41 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:47 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $898 $82.28 0.09x 2026-11-11 20:47 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [mateous](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mateous) $898 $610 0.68x 2026-11-11 20:47 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $898 $147 0.16x 2026-11-11 20:42 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [mateous](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mateous) $898 $178 0.20x 2026-11-11 20:42 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $898 $174 0.19x 2026-11-11 20:39 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [mateous](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mateous) $898 $1,128 1.26x 2026-11-11 20:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $898 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $907 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $910 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $911 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $914 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $913 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $914 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $918 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $919 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $918 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $918 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $922 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $926 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $921 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $930 | 90.50% | 56 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 64.7% extraordinary 3.4% epic 6.9% legendary 3.4% sunny 3.4% red 0.9% classified 6.9% Legendary 1.6% pink 5.7% Classified 3.1% best hit $14.1K (15.14x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.50 on average: an expected loss of $9.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt