---
title: "CHINATOWN case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "CHINATOWN ($97.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 56 items with odds, observed 90.49% over 2,130 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [CHINATOWN](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · CHINATOWN

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown?window=all)

Price · $97.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $85.31 from 56 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.49% · 2,130 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.06% ±15.66 265 openings

7 days · 90.98% ±6.00 1,761 openings

30 days · 90.49% ±5.46 2,130 openings

since tracking started · 90.49% ±5.46 2,130 openings

69.5% 86.0% 102.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown?window=24h) | 265 | 86.06% ±15.7 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown?window=7d) | 1,761 | 90.98% ±6.00 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown) | 2,130 | 90.49% ±5.46 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/chinatown?window=all) | 2,130 | 90.49% ±5.46 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,132 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 33,333 | $13.7K | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,286 | $3,049 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,005 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,353 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,123 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.56× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $819 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $612 | 0.6% | 6 | 1.7 | 3.52× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,667 | $587 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $350 | 5.8% | 2 | 29.9 | 0.07× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $347 | 5.8% | 29 | 30.1 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 144 | $310 | 2.5% | 0 | 14.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 260 | $275 | 1.2% | 0 | 8.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 855 | $273 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $260 | 5.8% | 47 | 40.2 | 1.17× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $242 | 2.2% | 0 | 16.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 73 | $240 | 3.9% | 28 | 29.3 | 0.96× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $173 | 3.9% | 36 | 40.8 | 0.88× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $172 | 3.9% | 42 | 41.0 | 1.03× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $169 | 3.9% | 38 | 41.7 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 121 | $154 | 1.5% | 0 | 17.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $153 | 3.9% | 53 | 46.0 | 1.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $148 | 1.5% | 0 | 19.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 11.9% | $133 | 18.7% | 259 | 254.5 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $113 | 3.5% | 0 | 56.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $109 | 3.0% | 0 | 50.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 129 | $92.01 | 0.8% | 0 | 16.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $90.57 | 3.8% | 125 | 75.9 | 1.65× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $84.17 | 3.6% | 101 | 78.2 | 1.29× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $83.48 | 0.9% | 0 | 19.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 109 | $82.27 | 0.9% | 0 | 19.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $77.59 | 0.8% | 0 | 18.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 146 | $77.59 | 0.6% | 0 | 14.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $71.83 | 0.9% | 0 | 23.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $65.16 | 0.8% | 0 | 23.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $63.62 | 0.8% | 0 | 24.2 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $59.76 | 1.1% | 0 | 32.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 94 | $56.83 | 0.7% | 0 | 22.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $54.76 | 0.7% | 0 | 23.9 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $47.02 | 1.2% | 0 | 44.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $44.72 | 0.8% | 0 | 31.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $33.66 | 2.1% | 80 | 112.8 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 195 | $25.20 | 0.2% | 0 | 10.9 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $15.79 | 0.3% | 0 | 33.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 150 | $14.21 | 0.1% | 0 | 14.2 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $14.18 | 0.3% | 0 | 38.8 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $12.85 | 0.3% | 0 | 44.5 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $12.82 | 0.3% | 0 | 44.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $11.92 | 0.4% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $9.99 | 0.2% | 0 | 39.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $7.60 | 0.1% | 0 | 34.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $6.69 | 0.3% | 0 | 69.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $5.84 | 0.3% | 0 | 84.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $5.74 | 0.5% | 0 | 154.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $5.37 | 0.2% | 0 | 55.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $5.09 | 0.2% | 0 | 59.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $4.88 | 0.2% | 0 | 63.6 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/chinatown`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono) Hidden $97.50 $2,354 24.14x 2026-11-05 15:59 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono) Hidden $97.50 $2,336 23.96x 2026-11-09 16:01 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $97.50 $1,138 11.67x 2026-11-09 22:23 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $97.50 $1,137 11.66x 2026-11-08 21:31 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $97.50 $816 8.37x 2026-11-11 11:15 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $97.50 $623 6.39x 2026-11-05 13:16 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $97.50 $623 6.39x 2026-11-05 21:29 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [N:OW](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/N%3AOW) $97.50 $618 6.34x 2026-11-06 14:39 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $97.50 $613 6.29x 2026-11-07 23:07 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $97.50 $610 6.25x 2026-11-10 12:15 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=chinatown)

[★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $97.50 $347 3.56x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive) [76561198389378693](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/76561198389378693) $97.50 $81.46 0.84x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $97.50 $260 2.67x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $97.50 $84.17 0.86x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus) [yolo](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/yolo) $97.50 $6.05 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive) Hidden $97.50 $81.46 0.84x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fuel Injector weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector) Hidden $97.50 $13.77 0.14x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

[AWP | Duality weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality) Hidden $97.50 $7.37 0.08x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Zuri Boyka](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Zuri%20Boyka) $97.50 $260 2.67x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge) [CS2.ME Browuś pyk pyk ♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CS2.ME%20Browu%C5%9B%20pyk%20pyk%20%E2%99%BF) $97.50 $7.97 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $97.50 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $97.50 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $97.50 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $97.50 | 87.18% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $97.50 | 86.98% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $97.50 | 87.65% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $97.50 | 87.99% | 56 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $97.50 | 87.58% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $97.50 | 87.71% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $97.50 | 86.62% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $97.50 | 87.68% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $97.50 | 86.61% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $97.50 | 86.69% | 56 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $97.50 | 88.19% | 56 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $97.50 | 87.46% | 56 |
| 3 Nov, 09:09 UTC | $97.50 | 88.80% | 56 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $97.50 | 89.11% | 56 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 42.4% extraordinary 0.0% epic 1.5% legendary 0.1% sunny 11.9% red 1.1% classified 12.9% Legendary 3.5% pink 15.0% Classified 11.6% best hit $2,354 (24.14x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt